Prediction record
MissmarketsThe ETH/BTC ratio finds its cycle bottom (a durable low followed by upward reversal) between September and December 2024.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Missmarkets“I think eth Bitcoin is going to bottom out potentially as early as September”
The ETH/BTC ratio finds its cycle bottom (a durable low followed by upward reversal) between September and December 2024.
- Made on
- 2024-08-27
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-04-09
The ETH/BTC ratio prints its lowest value of the down-cycle (a local/cycle bottom followed by a sustained upward reversal) at some point between 2024-09-01 and 2024-12-31.
Criterion required the down-cycle's lowest value + sustained upward reversal to occur between 2024-09-01 and 2024-12-31. Instead the ratio continued making materially lower lows through Q1 2025, bottoming ~0.0177 on 2025-04-09. No cycle bottom formed in the predicted window. (Outcome value/scoring deferred to a later stage.)
Sources
Solana Outlook
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
The ETH/BTC ratio did NOT bottom in the Sep–Dec 2024 window. It kept falling well past the deadline, collapsing to a multi-year low of ~0.0177 on 2025-04-09 (a level last seen Feb 2020) — far below any value printed in Sep–Dec 2024. The durable low and sustained upward reversal came in April 2025, not the predicted window.
As of 2025-02-05 the ratio stood at ~0.028 (intraday as low as 0.027) — a four-year low, confirming the down-cycle continued below Sep–Dec 2024 levels rather than reversing up from them.
The ratio remained below 0.05 for 14 consecutive months after losing that level end of July 2024, then reclaimed 0.04 only in late August 2025 — the first sustained reversal, ~8 months after the predicted window closed.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+0.46- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The ETH/BTC ratio finds its cycle bottom (a durable low fol…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-08-27
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources