Prediction record
HitmarketsBitcoin rises during Q4 2024 (halving-year Q4 seasonal strength), conditional on a strong November 2024 labor-market print
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“if the labor market print for November is good and it looks like the labor market is recovering from all the tightening and whatnot then it's more likely than not that Bitcoin just follows what it does in most Q4 in all Q4 of of having years where Bitcoin goes up”
Bitcoin rises during Q4 2024 (halving-year Q4 seasonal strength), conditional on a strong November 2024 labor-market print
- Made on
- 2024-10-14
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.27
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-12-31
BTC/USD closes Q4 2024 (Dec 31 2024) higher than its Q3 2024 close, i.e. net positive over Oct–Dec 2024
Clean resolution. Both the outcome (Q4 closed higher than Q3) and the stated conditional (strong Nov 2024 labor print) hold. Exact closes vary a few hundred dollars by data source/timezone but the sign and magnitude are unambiguous. Outcome value (o) intentionally not assigned.
Sources
Bitcoin: Halving Year Returns
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
BTC/USD Q3 2024 close (Sep 30, 2024) ≈ $63,565; Q4 2024 close (Dec 31, 2024) ≈ $93,460 — Q4 net positive ~+47%, so the Dec 31 close was well above the Q3 close. Criterion (Q4 close > Q3 close) MET.
Independent price history confirming the Sep 30, 2024 close near $63.5K and the Dec 31, 2024 close near $93.4K.
Conditional trigger satisfied: the November 2024 jobs report (BLS Employment Situation, released Dec 6, 2024) showed a strong rebound of +227,000 nonfarm payrolls after October's storm/strike-depressed print — the 'strong November labor-market print' the claim was conditioned on.
Corrections
- conditional condition met: Resolution evidence documents the antecedent (strong +227k Nov 2024 payrolls print) objectively occurred; leaving condition_met null is inconsistent with the resolved/scoreable status. Path verified valid (conditional.is_conditional true).
Score contribution
+2.27- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.27
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin rises during Q4 2024 (halving-year Q4 seasonal stre…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-10-14
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources