Prediction record
HitmarketsTesla will outperform the S&P 500 going into 2025
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“Tesla will outperform the S&P going into 2025”
Tesla will outperform the S&P 500 going into 2025
- Made on
- 2024-10-24
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.27
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-03-31
TSLA total return exceeds SPX total return over the window from 2024-10-24 into early 2025
Criterion met on endpoint-to-endpoint total return: TSLA (-0.5%) outperformed the S&P 500 (-2.9% TR / -3.4% price) over 2024-10-24 → 2025-03-31, because SPX fell more. Note the path was extremely volatile — TSLA spiked to ~$480 in Dec 2024 then fell to ~$220 by mid-March 2025 before recovering to ~$259; the criterion specifies window endpoints, which is what is measured here. Not assigning an outcome value.
Sources
Tesla Outlook
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
TSLA total return over the window: close 260.48 on 2024-10-24 → 259.16 on 2025-03-31 = -0.51% (Tesla pays no dividend, so price return = total return). Daily OHLCV from Interactive Brokers price history.
S&P 500 (SPX) closed 5,809.86 on 2024-10-24 and 5,611.85 on 2025-03-31 = -3.41% price return; with reinvested dividends the S&P 500 total return over the ~5.2-month window was roughly -2.9%. Either way TSLA (-0.5%) exceeded SPX total return, outperforming by ~2.4-2.9 percentage points.
S&P 500 close on 2024-10-24 (5,809.86) corroborated by contemporaneous market report.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.27- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.27
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Tesla will outperform the S&P 500 going into 2025- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-10-24
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources