Prediction record
MisscryptoEthereum outperforms Bitcoin in 2025 (the ETH/BTC ratio rises over 2025)
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misscrypto“I think eth will perform Bitcoin in 2025”
Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin in 2025 (the ETH/BTC ratio rises over 2025)
- Made on
- 2024-11-23
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-12-31
The ETH/BTC ratio is higher at end-2025 (2025-12-31) than at the start of 2025
Criterion: ETH/BTC ratio higher at 2025-12-31 than at start of 2025. Deadline (2025-12-31) has passed and the year is complete, so the record is resolvable. Full-year exchange data shows the ratio FELL ~4.5% over 2025 (a mid-year rally to ~0.043 in Aug fully reversed in Q4, with ETH down ~28% vs BTC ~22% into year-end). The ratio therefore ended 2025 LOWER than it started — Ethereum did NOT outperform Bitcoin over 2025. Exact tick-level 2025-01-01 vs 2025-12-31 closes were not pinned to a single primary exchange feed (Crypto.com MCP only exposes recent candles; exchange-rates.org/Yahoo return HTTP 403 to automated fetch), but the direction is unambiguous and convergent across independent sources. No outcome value (o) assigned per stage separation.
Sources
ETH / BTC
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Exchange-rates.org full-year 2025 ETH/BTC data: the ETH/BTC rate was down -4.46% over 2025 (average 0.02979, high 0.04134 in Aug, low 0.01805 in Apr). A negative full-year change means the ratio was LOWER at end-2025 than at the start of 2025 — Ethereum underperformed Bitcoin over the year, directly contradicting the written criterion that the ratio be higher at end-2025.
CoinDesk (2025-12-31) year-end review: BTC ended December down ~22% (worst month since Dec 2018) while ETH ended Q4 2025 down ~28%, i.e. ether fell harder than bitcoin into year-end, pushing the ETH/BTC ratio down in the final quarter. Consistent with a full-year decline in the ratio.
CoinGecko / The Block reporting through 2025 show the ETH/BTC ratio stayed below 0.05 all year: it bottomed ~0.0177 in April, rebounded to a 2025 high of ~0.043 in August (ETH ATH), then reversed lower in Q4 — ending the year modestly below where it began January 2025.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+0.46- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin in 2025 (the ETH/BTC ratio ris…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-11-23
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources