Prediction record
MissmarketsBitcoin dominance tops out in early January 2025
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Missmarkets“if the dollar tops out early January that probably means Bitcoin dominance tops out early January”
Bitcoin dominance tops out in early January 2025
- Made on
- 2024-12-20
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-01-31
Bitcoin dominance (BTC market cap / total crypto market cap) reaches a local peak in early January 2025 and declines thereafter.
Criterion (local peak in early January 2025 followed by decline) is contradicted by the data: dominance continued higher into a late-June 2025 peak. Determinable false by the Jan 31 deadline (no early-January top-and-turn occurred); fully confirmed by the June trajectory. 'Bitcoin dominance' definition (BTC / total crypto mcap) should be applied consistently — CMC includes stablecoins; a stablecoin-excluded series could shift levels but not the rising-through-H1 conclusion. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
The Fed Cuts Interest Rates by 25 bps
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin dominance did NOT top in early January 2025. It rose from ~57% in early 2025 to a yearly high of 65.1% on June 27, 2025, climbing through H1 2025 rather than peaking in early January and declining thereafter.
2025 recap: BTC dominance averaged ~59.3% for the year and remained elevated (still ~58% in October 2025); the anticipated altcoin rotation was delayed, consistent with dominance rising, not topping, in early 2025.
Corrections
- Date: Statement made in the 2024-12-20 video.
- conditional condition met: Antecedent (DXY tops early January 2025) objectively occurred — DXY peaked ~Jan 13, 2025 then declined — so the conditional resolves on Y rather than voiding.
Score contribution
-0.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin dominance tops out in early January 2025- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-12-20
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources