Prediction record
MissmarketsEthereum outperforms Bitcoin (the ETH/BTC ratio rises) over 2025
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Missmarkets“I do think next year there's a good chance that eth will go up against Bitcoin”
Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin (the ETH/BTC ratio rises) over 2025
- Made on
- 2024-12-15
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-12-31
The ETH/BTC ratio is higher on 2025-12-31 than on 2024-12-15
Criterion is a strict endpoint comparison (ratio on 2025-12-31 vs 2024-12-15). Ratio declined 0.03789 -> 0.03391 (about -10.5%), so the written criterion is not satisfied. Prices are CMC end-of-day snapshots; independent price sources agree on direction. No conflicting credible evidence. Outcome value/scoring deferred to a later stage.
Sources
Investing $1,000 in Crypto?
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Baseline (2024-12-15): CoinMarketCap historical snapshot shows BTC $104,298.70 and ETH $3,951.94, giving an ETH/BTC ratio of 3951.94/104298.70 = 0.03789.
Endpoint (2025-12-31): CoinMarketCap historical snapshot shows BTC $87,508.83 and ETH $2,967.04, giving an ETH/BTC ratio of 2967.04/87508.83 = 0.03391. The ratio fell from 0.03789 to 0.03391 over the period, so ETH did NOT outperform BTC on the endpoint-to-endpoint basis the criterion specifies.
Corroborating context: 2025 ETH/BTC averaged ~0.0298 (range ~0.0181-0.0413), rising to a 2025 high mid-year on ETH-ETF inflows before a Q4/year-end slump; by mid-2026 the ratio had fallen further to ~0.028. This is consistent with a lower ETH/BTC at 2025-12-31 than at 2024-12-15.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+0.46- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin (the ETH/BTC ratio rises) over…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-12-15
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources