Prediction record
MisscryptoBitcoin's MVRV Z-Score rises above 6 by the end of 2025.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misscrypto“if we do get a right translated cycle with a Peak at the end of this year like the last three Cycles then the implication is that the mvrv zcore would likely be above six”
Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score rises above 6 by the end of 2025.
- Made on
- 2025-01-22
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.56
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-12-31
Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score exceeds 6 at some point on or before 2025-12-31.
Exact peak MVRV Z-Score values differ slightly across providers (Glassnode / bitcoinmagazinepro / MacroMicro use different realized-cap normalizations), but every source places the 2025 maximum in the low single digits (~3), well below the 6 threshold — no provider ambiguity affects the outcome. Full observation window has elapsed (today 2026-07-13), so the record is fully resolvable. No conflicting credible evidence.
Sources
Bitcoin: MVRV Z-Score
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score fluctuated roughly between 1 and 3 through 2025 (~2.43-2.46 as of June 2025) and peaked with the Bitcoin cycle top in October 2025 at only around 3 — far below 6. The metric has shown structurally diminishing cycle peaks (8+ in 2011, ~7.5 in 2017, ~2.78 in the 2024 leg), and the 2025 top remained a muted reading that never reached the 6-7 zone. The score did not exceed 6 at any point on or before 2025-12-31 — the written criterion (rises above 6 by end of 2025) was NOT met.
Contemporaneous mid-2025 reading (~2.46, June 4 2025) and characterization of the 2025 cycle staying in a low-single-digit MVRV Z-Score range, consistent with the maturing-market diminishing-peaks trend.
Post-peak collapse of the metric (~0.49 by April 2026) confirms the late-2025 top was passed and was low, not an extreme 6+ reading.
Corrections
- conditional condition met: Antecedent (a right-translated cycle peaking late 2025) objectively occurred — BTC peaked $126,198 on 2025-10-06, ~18 months post-halving. Setting condition_met=true validly makes the record scoreable-as-miss rather than void; the consequent (MVRV>6) still failed.
Score contribution
-0.56- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.56
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score rises above 6 by the end of 2025.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-01-22
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources