Prediction record
HitmarketsThe S&P 500 puts in a local low around the March 2025 options expiration (~March 21 ±2 weeks) and stages a counter-trend rally.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“my expectation is that the low the local low is sometime around March Opex right plus or minus a week or two”
The S&P 500 puts in a local low around the March 2025 options expiration (~March 21 ±2 weeks) and stages a counter-trend rally.
- Made on
- 2025-03-16
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-03-25
The S&P 500 forms a local price low within ~2 weeks of 2025-03-21 and rallies (counter-trend bounce) off that low.
Criterion (local low within ~2 weeks of March 21 + counter-trend bounce off it) is satisfied: local low March 13, counter-trend rally through opex into late March. Caveat for the later scoring stage: this March low did NOT hold as THE low — the S&P made a lower low after 'Liberation Day' tariffs, closing 4,982.77 on April 8, 2025 (intraday ~4,835). But the record's written criterion only requires a local low + counter-trend rally, both of which occurred. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
S&P 500 Seasonality
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
The S&P 500 formed a local low on March 13, 2025 at a 5,522 close (~5,504 intraday), within ~1 week of the March 21 opex — inside the criterion's ~2-week window.
Off that March 13 low the index staged a counter-trend rally: +2.13% to 5,638.94 on March 14, closing the March 21 quad-witching at 5,667.56 (+0.08%) and snapping a four-week losing streak, continuing up toward the high-5,700s in the following days.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+1.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The S&P 500 puts in a local low around the March 2025 optio…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-03-16
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources