Prediction record
HitmarketsThe S&P 500's 200-week SMA is right around 4,700 by the beginning of May 2025
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“the 200 week SMA will be right around 4700. That would be about about the beginning of May or so.”
The S&P 500's 200-week SMA is right around 4,700 by the beginning of May 2025
- Made on
- 2025-04-17
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.91
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-05-01
The S&P 500's 200-week simple moving average reads approximately 4,700 (within a small tolerance) as of ~May 1 2025
Exact 200-week SMA depends on the precise weekly-close series and provider; a monthly-close proxy of the 200-week window computes to ~4,701, strongly supporting the ~4,700 reading as of ~May 1 2025. No outcome value assigned (later stage). Recommend a later stage confirm against a full weekly-close 200wk SMA if a primary technical feed is available.
Sources
S&P 500: A Date With Destiny
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Reconstruction of the S&P 500 200-week simple moving average as of ~May 1 2025: averaging weekly closes over the trailing 200 weeks (~mid-2021 through late April 2025), proxied with 47 monthly closes from S&P 500 historical price data, yields ~4,701. This matches the claimed 'right around 4,700' within a small tolerance.
Corroborating context: the S&P 500 spent early 2025 in the ~5,600-6,100 range with its 200-week MA far below as a rising support level; technical-analysis trackers place the 200-week MA in the mid-4,000s in spring 2025, consistent with ~4,700.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+1.91- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.91
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The S&P 500's 200-week SMA is right around 4,700 by the beg…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-04-17
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources