Prediction record
MissmarketsBitcoin price weakness will begin around mid-June 2025 (price starts declining in anticipation of Q3)
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Missmarkets“I'm going to guess by mid June uh you'll probably start to see that Q3 weakness take hold and markets start to price it in”
Bitcoin price weakness will begin around mid-June 2025 (price starts declining in anticipation of Q3)
- Made on
- 2025-05-23
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-06-30
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) begins a sustained downward move around mid-June 2025 — price is lower at 2025-06-30 than at 2025-06-15, i.e. a decline commences by mid-June.
Criterion NOT satisfied on the written test: price at 2025-06-30 ($107,135) was higher than at 2025-06-15 ($105,552). A transient dip occurred ~June 22 ($98,286) but reversed before month-end, so no sustained downward move began by mid-June. Resolution is factual only; no outcome value assigned per instructions.
Sources
Bitcoin: The Golden Cross Dump
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin closed at $105,552.03 on June 15, 2025 and at $107,135.33 on June 30, 2025 — i.e., BTC was HIGHER at month-end than at mid-June, contrary to the criterion's requirement that price be lower on Jun 30 than Jun 15.
There was a mid-June dip (June 22 intraday low ~$98,286, amid Middle East conflict headlines), but BTC recovered above the June 15 level by June 30, so no sustained decline commencing by mid-June through month-end.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-0.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin price weakness will begin around mid-June 2025 (pri…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-05-23
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources