Prediction record
MisscryptoThe aggregate altcoin/Bitcoin pairs metric (~0.31 at time of claim) falls to its ~0.25 range lows by the end of 2025.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misscrypto“I think sometime later this year we likely will see all Bitcoin pairs probably around 0.25”
The aggregate altcoin/Bitcoin pairs metric (~0.31 at time of claim) falls to its ~0.25 range lows by the end of 2025.
- Made on
- 2025-06-27
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-12-31
The aggregate altcoin/BTC pairs index (per Cowen's chart, ~0.31 at time of claim) trades down to approximately 0.25 (±0.01) at any point on or before 2025-12-31.
Criterion required the index to trade down to ~0.25 (±0.01) at any point on or before 2025-12-31. Alts strengthened vs BTC in H2 2025 (dominance fell, TOTAL3/BTC broke downtrend upward); the ~0.25 range low was not reached within 2025. Index-definition caveat: exact figure depends on Cowen's specific aggregate; public TOTAL3/BTC on the same ~0.30 scale is the proxy used. Note the reported 'floor' talk (~0.27 wick) stayed above 0.25 through late 2025.
Sources
Why Has Alt Season Not Happened Yet (Part 2)?
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
The aggregate altcoin/BTC pairs index (Cowen's chart ~0.31 at claim time; TOTAL3/BTC ~0.33 on June 1, 2025) did not fall to ~0.25 by end of 2025. Instead altcoins outperformed Bitcoin in H2 2025: TOTAL3/BTC broke a multi-year descending trendline upward, and Bitcoin dominance fell to 58.8% in November 2025 as capital rotated into altcoins.
Driver context: ETH led an alt outperformance in Q3 2025 (ETH +66.8% vs BTC +6.3%; ETH/BTC +53%), which lifts aggregate alt/BTC pairs rather than driving them to range lows.
Cowen himself, mid-October 2025, still framed a possible late-year 'wick down to ~0.27' for alt/BTC pairs before an altseason — i.e., as of Oct 2025 the ~0.25 range low had not been reached and the index sat above it.
Corrections
- tags: Claim subject is an aggregate altcoin/BTC-pairs price/level metric → 'crypto' primary, 'markets' secondary per the dictionary crypto-vs-markets rule. This is the one scoreable record in the set, so the fix affects the crypto/markets tag sub-scores.
Score contribution
-0.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The aggregate altcoin/Bitcoin pairs metric (~0.31 at time o…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-06-27
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources