Prediction record
HitcryptoIf Bitcoin records weekly closes below its 50-week EMA within the next ~6 months, the bull market cycle is over
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitcrypto“if we get weekly closes below the 50we cycle's probably over”
If Bitcoin records weekly closes below its 50-week EMA within the next ~6 months, the bull market cycle is over
- Made on
- 2025-09-19
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.68
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2026-03-19
If BTC posts a weekly close below the 50-week EMA by 2026-03-19, then BTC confirms a cycle top (no new highs / sustained downtrend follows).
Conditional prediction: both the antecedent (weekly close below 50W EMA before 2026-03-19, triggered Nov 2025) and the consequent (cycle top confirmed, sustained downtrend with no new highs) are met, so the conditional resolves in its favor. resolved_on set to the 2026-03-19 deadline, by which the >50% drawdown / bear-market confirmation was firmly established. Later stage should verify exact weekly-close-vs-50W-EMA values against BTC weekly OHLC.
Sources
Bitcoin: Post-FOMC
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Antecedent satisfied: BTC broke below its 50-week EMA with weekly closes below it in November 2025 (a month after the Oct 10 flash crash), breaking the support that had underpinned the uptrend since early 2024.
Consequent satisfied: a sustained downtrend / cycle top followed. BTC topped ~$126,199 in October 2025 and fell to ~$60,000 by early February 2026 (a >50% drawdown), losing $90k/$80k/$70k levels through Jan-Feb 2026; widely characterized as a confirmed bear market with no new highs.
Independent confirmation of the sustained downtrend: BTC plunged from ~$90k to ~$60k by Feb 6, 2026 and remained well below $100k through Q1 2026.
Corrections
- conditional condition met: Resolution evidence establishes BTC recorded weekly closes below its 50-week EMA in Nov 2025 within the window; antecedent satisfied, so condition_met must not remain null.
- tags: Bitcoin price/cycle claim: 'crypto' primary with 'markets' secondary per the tag dictionary.
Score contribution
+3.68- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.68
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
If Bitcoin records weekly closes below its 50-week EMA with…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-09-19
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources