Prediction record
HitmarketsCommodities undergo a correction within the next few months after October 2025
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“We're probably going to get a correction in commodities at some point in the next few months.”
Commodities undergo a correction within the next few months after October 2025
- Made on
- 2025-10-20
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2026-02-02
A broad commodities index posts a peak-to-trough decline of ≥10% at some point within ~4 months of 2025-10-20.
Window ~Oct 20 2025 → ~Feb 20/28 2026. Commodities generally ROSE Oct–Dec 2025 (precious-metals surge); the qualifying correction is the late-Jan/early-Feb 2026 precious-metals crash (gold −21% from its Jan 29 ATH, silver −40%). Precious metals were an unusually large BCOM weight at the time, so a broad metals-heavy commodities index posting a ≥10% peak-to-trough decline in this window is overwhelmingly supported. CAVEAT: I could not retrieve exact BCOM index-level peak (late Jan) and trough (early Feb) daily prints to state the precise BCOM peak-to-trough percentage; the ≥10% threshold is inferred from the magnitude of the metals crash and the metals weight, not from a directly cited BCOM peak/trough pair. Confidence high but not numerically pinned to the index.
Sources
Palladium Hits $1600
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
A historic commodities correction hit at the end of the window: gold peaked at an all-time high ~$5,595/oz on Jan 29, 2026, then fell ~21% from that record by early February 2026; silver dropped ~40%. Described as an 'unprecedented' crash — gold's largest daily fall since the 1980s and silver's largest daily fall on record.
The selloff was broad across the metals complex and coincided with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) Jan 2026 annual rebalance forcing mechanical selling of over-weighted precious metals (silver had ballooned to ~9% of BCOM); gold/silver/copper all pulled back sharply.
Context on the broad index: BCOM finished 2025 up ~15.8% and was still +10.9% YTD at ~121.7 by Feb 27, 2026 — i.e., the deep late-Jan/early-Feb drawdown was a sharp peak-to-trough dip within a broadly rising index, consistent with a ≥10% intra-window correction followed by partial recovery.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.76- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Commodities undergo a correction within the next few months…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-10-20
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources