Prediction record
MisscryptoBitcoin dominance keeps rising and peaks around early December 2025 (when quantitative tightening ends)
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misscrypto“there just seems to be like so many different prior scenarios where dominance surges into December”
Bitcoin dominance keeps rising and peaks around early December 2025 (when quantitative tightening ends)
- Made on
- 2025-11-14
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.89
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-12-31
Bitcoin dominance continues rising and reaches a local peak during late-November to early-December 2025
Evidence contradicts the prediction on both counts. (1) Dominance did NOT 'keep rising' into the window — it declined through November (≈61% → ≈58.8%). (2) It did not form a local peak in late-Nov/early-Dec; instead late November was a local low and dominance rose through December (~59.7% by Dec 29), i.e., it was still climbing at the deadline rather than having peaked early December. Sources vary in exact levels (charts, not a single official series), but the direction is consistent.
Sources
Bitcoin Dominance To Surge Into December
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Through November 2025 Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) FELL from roughly 61.4% to ~58.8%, dipping below 60% in late November and fueling altcoin-season speculation — i.e., dominance was declining, not 'continuing to rise,' during the predicted window.
By 2025-12-29 BTC.D had climbed back to ~59.7% with the Altcoin Season Index at ~17-18 (Bitcoin season persisting into 2026) — dominance was rising through late December rather than having peaked in early December.
Late-Nov analysis: BTC.D broke down from a multi-year uptrend toward the high-58% area amid altcoin-rotation talk, with forecasts of further decline toward 54% — inconsistent with an early-December dominance peak.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-0.89- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.89
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin dominance keeps rising and peaks around early Decem…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-11-14
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources