Prediction record
75% outcomecryptoBitcoin tests $100,000 in the coming months
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
75% outcomecrypto“I do think there's a reasonable chance Bitcoin will test 100K um at some point in in in the coming months”
Bitcoin tests $100,000 in the coming months
- Made on
- 2026-01-05
- Outcome
- 75% outcome
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2026-07-05
Bitcoin trades up to/at $100,000 at some point by ~mid-2026 (BTC was ~$88-93k on the claim date, so a 'test' of $100k means rising to it)
Under the written criterion ('trades down to/at $100,000'), BTC never reached $100,000 at any point in the Jan–mid-2026 window; its highest print was ~$98,000 (mid-Jan), within ~2% but not a touch. Note a phrasing mismatch: on the claim date BTC was already below $100k (~$88–93k), so a literal 'test' would mean rising UP to $100k, which also did not happen (topped ~$98k, then fell to the high-$50k's). Any reasonable reading yields the same factual outcome: no $100,000 trade in-window. The Oct-2025 pass through $100k (during the fall from the $126k ATH) is outside the claim window.
Sources
Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
On the claim date (2026-01-05) BTC started 2026 near $88,000 and briefly topped ~$93,000 — i.e. already BELOW $100k; traders were positioning for a run at $100k that had not yet occurred.
BTC's H1-2026 high was reached in mid-January at roughly $97,860–$98,000 (approached ~$98k 'for the first time in 3 months'), then rejected — it never printed $100,000 within the window.
After the January peak BTC collapsed: ~$60,074 low in Feb 2026, and Crypto.com exchange candles show June 2026 low $58,100 and early-July low $57,802 — no $100k touch anywhere in H1 2026.
Corrections
- tags: A pure crypto price bet takes 'crypto' primary + 'markets' secondary per the dictionary boundary rule; 'markets'-only misroutes it out of the crypto sub-score.
- Resolution criterion: Directional error: BTC was BELOW $100k at utterance, so a 'test' requires rising, not trading 'down to'. Factual outcome (no $100k touch) is unchanged.
Score contribution
+2.76- Confidence
- 55%
- Outcome
- 75% outcome
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin tests $100,000 in the coming months- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2026-01-05
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources