Prediction record
HitmarketsSilver reaches a blow-off top in the first half of 2026 (good chance in Q1)
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“I think we're heading into a blow-off top that should finalize in the first half of this year. Good chance even in the first quarter of this year.”
Silver reaches a blow-off top in the first half of 2026 (good chance in Q1)
- Made on
- 2026-01-14
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2026-01-30
silver reaches a parabolic blow-off top (sharp peak followed by a reversal) by 2026-06-30
Criterion (parabolic blow-off top: sharp peak followed by a reversal, by 2026-06-30) is met unambiguously. Peak US$121.62 on 2026-01-29 followed by an immediate multi-day/multi-month reversal; resolved_on set to 2026-01-30, the reversal session that confirmed the blow-off. This landed in Q1, matching the 'good chance in Q1' emphasis. No conflicting credible evidence found — all sources agree a parabolic top and reversal occurred. No outcome value assigned (later stage).
Sources
Silver Mania!
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Silver set a nominal all-time high of US$121.62 on 2026-01-29, then collapsed ~15% in a single session on 2026-01-30 and fell to ~$71 by 2026-02-02 — a textbook parabolic 'pointed-top inverted-V' blow-off: sharp peak immediately followed by a sharp reversal, occurring in Q1 2026 as predicted.
Contemporaneous reporting describes a historic 'blow-off top' on 2026-01-30 as the multi-month parabolic surge in silver halted; silver suffered a ~15% one-day collapse hours after hitting lifetime highs near $120/oz.
Market-review data: silver spiked to an all-time high (~30,900 yuan/kg / $121.62) then executed a 'pointed-top inverted V' followed by a stepwise decline of ~45-55% into June 2026 (to ~$59-66/oz), confirming the blow-off top and subsequent trend reversal within H1 2026.
Corrections
- certainty verbatim marker: 'more than likely' is absent from statement.verbatim; correcting to a marker actually present so quantify derives p from a real cue.
Score contribution
+2.76- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Silver reaches a blow-off top in the first half of 2026 (go…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2026-01-14
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources