Prediction record
75% outcomecryptoBitcoin begins showing renewed price weakness by the end of April or early May 2026
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
75% outcomecrypto“within a couple of weeks, probably by the end of the month or early May, that is where you likely will start to see that weakness creep back in.”
Bitcoin begins showing renewed price weakness by the end of April or early May 2026
- Made on
- 2026-04-17
- Outcome
- 75% outcome
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.99
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2026-05-10
Bitcoin puts in a local top and begins declining (renewed weakness sets in) by ~2026-05-10
Deadline (~2026-05-10) passed. There IS a qualifying local top ~$82,320 on 2026-05-06 followed by a decline (May 15 $80.1k → May 26 $76.8k → May 29 $73.1k → ~$71k early June), which supports 'renewed weakness by early May'. TIMING CAVEAT for quantify: the top printed May 5–6 and the clear roll-over is most visible by mid-May; whether the decline had convincingly 'set in' strictly by the ~May 10 deadline is a judgment call (BTC was still ~$80k+ around May 10, only modestly off the $82.3k peak). Status=resolved with both the supportive top-and-decline pattern and the near-deadline ambiguity noted; no outcome value assigned.
Sources
Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
A local top formed in early May: BTC rose from ~$74k (mid-Apr) to $81,286.38 on May 5 and $82,320.02 on May 6 — a local peak — then rolled over.
Decline off the local top set in from mid-May: May 15 = $80,120.03 (below the May 6 peak), continuing lower afterward.
Renewed weakness confirmed into late May: May 26 = $76,754.77; May 29 = $73,105.71, extending to ~$71k by early June — consistent with a local top + renewed downtrend.
Corroborating late-May decline print: May 26, 2026 = $76,754.77.
Corrections
- tags: Bitcoin-specific claim; 'crypto' should be primary, 'markets' secondary.
Score contribution
+1.99- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- 75% outcome
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.99
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin begins showing renewed price weakness by the end of…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2026-04-17
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources