Prediction record
MisssocietyWithin four to six months (by roughly mid-2021), the Oxford/AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine will be used by more people worldwide than Pfizer and Moderna combined, by a significant margin.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Misssociety“four five six months from now i have no doubt that oxford will be used by more people than the first two combined by a significant margin”
Within four to six months (by roughly mid-2021), the Oxford/AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine will be used by more people worldwide than Pfizer and Moderna combined, by a significant margin.
- Made on
- 2020-12-21
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -2.65
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2021-07-31
By roughly mid-2021, cumulative global doses administered of Oxford/AstraZeneca exceeded the combined total of Pfizer plus Moderna doses by a wide margin.
Criterion requires AstraZeneca's cumulative global DOSES ADMINISTERED to exceed Pfizer + Moderna COMBINED by a wide margin by mid-2021. Evidence shows the opposite ranking: global dose volume was led by Chinese vaccines (Sinovac/Sinopharm) and by Pfizer/BioNTech, while AstraZeneca was supply-constrained. AstraZeneca led on number of COUNTRIES, not on dose count. The prediction conflates breadth-of-adoption with dose volume; the dose-volume claim is not supported. Exact administered-by-manufacturer totals for the precise mid-2021 date were not isolatable to a single primary figure, but every credible source (OWID, production trackers, AZ's own supply timeline) contradicts AZ exceeding Pfizer+Moderna combined by a wide margin — hence resolved rather than pending. Not flagging needs_human_review: the directional conclusion is robust across independent sources.
Sources
Vaccine Update 12/21/2020
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
By mid-2021 the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine was the most geographically WIDESPREAD (used in ~80% of vaccinating countries/territories vs. Pfizer ~47%, Moderna ~22%), but widest distribution by country count is not the same as the most doses administered. AstraZeneca was repeatedly described as supply/capacity-constrained and unable to meet COVAX volume commitments.
Global production data to July 31, 2021: China's Sinovac was the world's single largest COVID-19 vaccine producer, with Pfizer/BioNTech closing the monthly gap; the four largest producers (China, EU, India, US) accounted for >90% of output. Western high-income markets (US, EU) relied predominantly on Pfizer and Moderna. Pfizer alone manufactured over 3 billion doses in 2021.
Our World in Data 'COVID-19 vaccine doses administered by manufacturer' tracks cumulative doses per manufacturer; by mid-2021 global volumes were dominated by China's Sinovac/Sinopharm and by Pfizer/BioNTech, not by AstraZeneca. AstraZeneca later reported ~3 billion doses SUPPLIED cumulatively only by early 2022, not administered-by-mid-2021.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-2.65- Confidence
- 97%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -2.65
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Within four to six months (by roughly mid-2021), the Oxford…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-12-21
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources