Pundit profile

Peter Zeihan

Geopolitical strategist and former Stratfor VP of analysis who left Stratfor in 2012 to found Zeihan on Geopolitics; a high-volume forecaster on deglobalization, demographics, energy and great-power decline, known for bold, datable calls (China's collapse "this decade," a roughly 50% fall in Russian oil output, war-driven global famine) across a near-daily video/newsletter operation and a series of bestselling books.

geopoliticseconomyenergysocietymarketsActive since 2012177 of 862 scored

Score

-63

strong negative

Peter Zeihan Avow score-63, strong negative, from 177 scored records-100 / avoid them0 / hedger+100 / trust them
-63, strong negative, from 177 scored records

Calibration

Were they as right as they were sure?

The surer someone sounds, the more often they should be right.

When they sounded near-certain, only 40% of those 15 calls came true.

How many came trueWhere a reliable forecaster landsRed = overconfident

  • Near-certain · 15 calls

    40% came true

    “no doubt,” “guaranteed,” “almost certain”

  • Confident · 150 calls

    41% came true

    “will,” “going to,” “likely,” “I expect”

  • Leaning · 9 calls

    47% came true

    “I think,” “my bet,” “leaning toward”

  • A coin toss · 2 calls

    63% came true

    “if I had to guess,” “50-50”

  • A long shot · 1 call

    0% came true

    an explicit low chance, e.g. “a 30% chance”

Where we looked

Scored 177 of 862 gathered records (21%). Source coverage and the non-scored remainder are published as aggregate context only.

Where the scored claims come from

By medium
Video 173 · Blog 4
Top sources
YouTube 173 · zeihan.com 4

Sources searched

  • zeihan.com newsletter/video-post archive

    Peter Zeihan's own site (Zeihan on Geopolitics) publishes near-daily dated newsletter/video posts. Fully enumerable: wp-sitemap.xml -> post-sitemap.xml (1,000 URLs) + post-sitemap2.xml (377 URLs) = 1,377 posts, with lastmod dates spanning ~2015-10 to 2026-06; paginated category pages (e.g. /category/oil/) corroborate enumerability. This is the single richest primary record of his datable forecasts and the source of 6 of the 11 records (all quote_status=fetched_primary).

    Total known
    1377
    We examined
    104
    Time span
    2015-10-01..2026-06-13
    How we sampled
    Enumerated all 1,377 post URLs from the two post-sitemaps. Applied a documented slug filter for forecast-flavored terms (collapse|recession|crash|coming|imminent|prediction|forecast|end-of|the-end-of|-will-|peak-|dissolution|famine|next-), yielding 104 candidate posts. From that prioritized pool plus the specific high-profile dated calls identified in open search, the most clearly falsifiable/dated posts were fetched and extracted. Posts were NOT all read; routine non-predictive 'situation update' posts were deprioritized. A fuller sweep (read all 104 forecast-flavored posts + a random sample of the remaining ~1,273) is the recommended next pass.

  • Reputable-outlet quotes, podcast recaps, and books

    First-person quotes and direct recaps carried by reputable outlets and podcast-note sites for statements whose primary medium is audio/video or print books: The Joe Rogan Experience #1921 (Jan 2023), Straight Arrow News commentary, Taiwan News, an Eisenhower School seminar (Apr 2022), and the 2022 book 'The End of the World Is Just the Beginning'. Source of the China-collapse, conditional-China-famine, billion-deaths-famine, and Egypt-upheaval records.

    Total known
    unknown
    We examined
    8
    Time span
    2011-01-01..2026-06-13
    How we sampled
    Open-web targeted search per angle (famous calls/retrospectives; year-ahead forecasts; podcast/interview appearances; book theses). Podcast/seminar statements are recorded as secondhand and not yet primary-sourced pending primary-audio/transcript confirmation during verification. Not a systematic enumeration of his media appearances.

Open web search

Open search located the high-profile, datable forecasts and the recurring decade-scale theses; these were then anchored to primary zeihan.com posts where possible (6 of 11 records fetched_primary). Coverage skews to 2022-2024 and to memorable calls (Russia oil collapse, billion-deaths famine, China 'this decade', Ukraine agriculture, Venezuela). Listicle critiques (NextBigFuture, More Freedom Foundation, World Affairs) were used only as leads and traced back to Zeihan's own words.

  • famous/most-discussed calls and retrospectives ('was wrong about', 'debunked', 'predicted') — traced to primary sources
  • year-end / forecast-style columns and seminars (recession, inflation, famine timing)
  • interviews and podcasts with predictive statements (Joe Rogan #1921, Modern Wisdom, etc.)
  • his book headline theses (Disunited Nations 2020; The End of the World Is Just the Beginning 2022) and dated blog posts
  • China-collapse and Russia/Ukraine demographic-window claims with explicit horizons

Known gaps

(1) SAMPLING/SELECTION BIAS: only 104 of 1,377 zeihan.com posts were forecast-filtered and a subset fetched; the long tail of routine posts and many specific shorter-horizon calls (oil price levels, specific country forecasts) are not captured. (2) PARALLELISM: prescribed parallel research subagents were unavailable; sequential in-thread execution lowered breadth. (3) PODCAST/VIDEO PROVENANCE: 4 records are secondhand and not yet primary-sourced (Joe Rogan #1921 x3, Eisenhower seminar x1), captured via reputable recaps/aggregators rather than the primary audio — verify must confirm the exact wording before these score. (4) PRE-2015: Stratfor-era writing (2011-2014) and the 2010 China-collapse forecast are largely off this domain; the 2010 forecast is included only as an excluded pre-window reference. (5) BOOKS: book theses (Disunited Nations, The End of the World...) are under-mined; only the famine claim is captured, partly from the book. (6) DECADE-SCALE PENDING: 3 of the strongest, most-cited claims (China collapse before 2030; China 'final decade' ~2033; Russia gas 'vanishes' by ~2027) are PENDING and cannot yet contribute to a score, so the resolved-scorable base (5 records) is thin and well below the ~20-resolved provisional threshold. (7) RESOLUTION AMBIGUITY: the Egypt/Arab 'significant upheaval' claim has a vague criterion (economic-stress component partly true, famine/political-upheaval component false) and is flagged needs_human_review. (8) The Russia-oil and billion-famine horizons were Avow-inferred (no crisp deadline in Zeihan's words: 'sooner than you think', 'over the next few years'); verify should sanity-check those inferred deadlines.

What we didn’t score & why

Conditional whose trigger never occurred
19
Implied call — no explicit horizon stated
334
Out of scope for scoring
185
Outcome not yet known
68
Set aside for human review
79

Highlights

Best and worst calls.

Best calls

3

Scored record

Hitpolitics

“Donald Trump is so solid with his base that he's going to get the nomination”

Donald Trump will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.

Made on
2023-06-13
Outcome
Hit
Importance
4 / 5
Contribution
+3.99

Criterion

Resolution status
resolved
Resolved on
2024-03-12

Donald Trump secures the Republican Party's 2024 presidential nomination.

Criterion ('Trump secures the Republican Party's 2024 presidential nomination') is unambiguously satisfied. Clinched as presumptive nominee 2024-03-12; formally nominated 2024-07-15, both within the deadline. resolved_on set to the clinch date (2024-03-12). No outcome value assigned.

Sources

  • How Will Donald Trump's New Indictment(s) Impact the Election? || Peter Zeihan

    YouTube ·

    Source

Outcome evidence

  • Donald Trump clinched the 2024 Republican presidential nomination on 12 March 2024, surpassing the 1,215-delegate threshold with wins in Georgia, Mississippi and Washington state, becoming the presumptive nominee. Nikki Haley, his last major rival, had suspended her campaign on 6 March 2024.

    Evidence

  • Trump was formally nominated by roll-call vote of state delegations at the Republican National Convention on 15 July 2024 (Milwaukee), officially making him the GOP's 2024 presidential nominee; he selected J.D. Vance as running mate. This is before the record's 2024-07-15 deadline.

    Evidence

Corrections

No public corrections.

Scored record

Hitpolitics

“this is going to be an ugly ugly political issue for the next few years that is absolutely unavoidable but is absolutely critical if the United States in general in this region in specific is going to take it advantage of the demographic and geopolitical shifts that are racking our world right now”

Water allocation in the American Southwest will be a major, unavoidable political conflict over the next few years.

Made on
2023-04-14
Outcome
Hit
Importance
3 / 5
Contribution
+2.99

Criterion

Resolution status
resolved
Resolved on
2026-04-14

Within ~2023-2026, American Southwest water allocation becomes a prominent, contested political conflict (e.g. interstate dispute, federal intervention, or litigation over Colorado River water).

Written criterion: 'Within ~2023-2026, American Southwest water allocation becomes a prominent, contested political conflict (e.g. interstate dispute, federal intervention, or litigation over Colorado River water).' Clearly met: a sustained, high-profile Upper-vs-Lower-Basin interstate dispute over Colorado River allocation, multiple missed federal deadlines, active Interior/Reclamation intervention via the post-2026 NEPA process with a threatened federally-imposed plan, and a looming Supreme Court litigation threat — all within the window and still live at the deadline (April 14, 2026). No outcome value assigned (later stage). resolved_on = deadline.

Sources

  • The Water Crisis in the American Southwest || Peter Zeihan

    YouTube ·

    Source

Outcome evidence

  • Multi-year, prominent interstate political conflict over Colorado River water allocation throughout 2023-2026: the seven basin states (Upper Basin — CO, WY, UT, NM; Lower Basin — AZ, NV, CA) are fractured over who absorbs cuts for the post-2026 operating guidelines. Lower Basin offered ~1.25M acre-feet/yr in cuts; Upper Basin refused mandatory cuts (citing lack of legal authority). ~40M people, 5.5M acres of farmland and a $1.4T economy depend on the river. (Water Education Foundation / PBS NewsHour coverage of the negotiations and sticking points.)

    Evidence

  • Federal intervention and missed deadlines: the Interior Department / Bureau of Reclamation set a Nov 11, 2025 deadline (final details due Feb 2026) for a seven-state deal and warned Interior could 'step in to decide how to impose cuts' if states failed. States MISSED the Nov 11, 2025 deadline AND a Feb 14, 2026 deadline. Reclamation published a draft Environmental Impact Statement (Jan 2026) with action alternatives that would all cut water supplies, advancing the Post-2026 NEPA process toward finalized operating guidelines by Oct 1, 2026 (current guidelines lapse Sept 2026).

    Evidence

  • Explicit litigation / Supreme Court risk and ongoing stalemate into 2026: experts warn that absent a deal, Reclamation imposing one of its alternatives 'could lead to decades of litigation going up to the Supreme Court'; Arizona pressed the federal government to order water cuts. Coverage from Jan-Feb 2026 (Arizona Mirror, Deseret, Colorado Sun) documents the continuing, openly contested interstate dispute. This squarely satisfies 'prominent, contested political conflict (interstate dispute, federal intervention, or litigation over Colorado River water).'

    Evidence

Corrections

No public corrections.

Scored record

Hitpolitics

“we had a scare last week that looked like shanghai was about to go back into full lockdown already you know less than a month after opening up and i have no doubt that we're going to be facing this sort of problem over and over and over and over again”

China will face repeated cycles of COVID lockdowns, with Shanghai and other cities returning to lockdown multiple times.

Made on
2022-06-28
Outcome
Hit
Importance
3 / 5
Contribution
+2.99

Criterion

Resolution status
resolved
Resolved on
2022-10-05

Major Chinese cities (including Shanghai) re-enter COVID lockdowns on multiple distinct occasions within ~12 months of June 2022.

Criterion ('Major Chinese cities including Shanghai re-enter COVID lockdowns on multiple distinct occasions within ~12 months of June 2022') is well supported by reporting: Shanghai re-locked districts/citywide multiple times in June-July 2022, and dozens of other major cities (Chengdu, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, etc.) entered lockdowns repeatedly Aug-Oct 2022 until zero-COVID was abandoned in Dec 2022. resolved_on set to 2022-10-05 (a clearly-documented later distinct major-city lockdown), by which point the 'multiple distinct occasions' criterion was already met. Outcome value (o) deliberately not assigned; left for the quantify stage.

Sources

  • Beijing Doubles Down on Zero COVID...and Lockdowns

    YouTube ·

    Source

Outcome evidence

  • Shanghai exited its ~2-month citywide lockdown at midnight June 1, 2022, then re-entered lockdowns within days: on June 3, 2022 four neighborhoods in Jing'an and Pudong districts were put back into 'closed' lockdown ('mid-risk') after new cases. In July 2022 Shanghai again locked down almost the entire city over a weekend for mass testing as cases spread to 14 of the city's 16 districts. This establishes Shanghai re-entering lockdown on multiple distinct occasions after the June reopening.

    EvidenceArchive

  • Other major Chinese cities re-entered lockdowns repeatedly through autumn 2022: Chengdu locked down its ~21.2M residents starting Sept 1, 2022 (largest city locked down since Shanghai) and extended it; Shenzhen, Guangzhou (Haizhu district) and Dalian tightened restrictions. CNN reported that since Aug 20, 2022 at least 74 cities with a combined ~313M population had imposed full or partial lockdowns; on Oct 5, 2022 Xishuangbanna (Yunnan) went into full lockdown. Multiple distinct major-city lockdown episodes occurred within ~12 months of June 2022, satisfying the written criterion.

    EvidenceArchive

Corrections

No public corrections.

Worst calls

3

Scored record

Misssociety

“four five six months from now i have no doubt that oxford will be used by more people than the first two combined by a significant margin”

Within four to six months (by roughly mid-2021), the Oxford/AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine will be used by more people worldwide than Pfizer and Moderna combined, by a significant margin.

Made on
2020-12-21
Outcome
Miss
Importance
3 / 5
Contribution
-2.65

Criterion

Resolution status
resolved
Resolved on
2021-07-31

By roughly mid-2021, cumulative global doses administered of Oxford/AstraZeneca exceeded the combined total of Pfizer plus Moderna doses by a wide margin.

Criterion requires AstraZeneca's cumulative global DOSES ADMINISTERED to exceed Pfizer + Moderna COMBINED by a wide margin by mid-2021. Evidence shows the opposite ranking: global dose volume was led by Chinese vaccines (Sinovac/Sinopharm) and by Pfizer/BioNTech, while AstraZeneca was supply-constrained. AstraZeneca led on number of COUNTRIES, not on dose count. The prediction conflates breadth-of-adoption with dose volume; the dose-volume claim is not supported. Exact administered-by-manufacturer totals for the precise mid-2021 date were not isolatable to a single primary figure, but every credible source (OWID, production trackers, AZ's own supply timeline) contradicts AZ exceeding Pfizer+Moderna combined by a wide margin — hence resolved rather than pending. Not flagging needs_human_review: the directional conclusion is robust across independent sources.

Sources

  • Vaccine Update 12/21/2020

    YouTube ·

    Source

Outcome evidence

  • By mid-2021 the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine was the most geographically WIDESPREAD (used in ~80% of vaccinating countries/territories vs. Pfizer ~47%, Moderna ~22%), but widest distribution by country count is not the same as the most doses administered. AstraZeneca was repeatedly described as supply/capacity-constrained and unable to meet COVAX volume commitments.

    Evidence

  • Global production data to July 31, 2021: China's Sinovac was the world's single largest COVID-19 vaccine producer, with Pfizer/BioNTech closing the monthly gap; the four largest producers (China, EU, India, US) accounted for >90% of output. Western high-income markets (US, EU) relied predominantly on Pfizer and Moderna. Pfizer alone manufactured over 3 billion doses in 2021.

    Evidence

  • Our World in Data 'COVID-19 vaccine doses administered by manufacturer' tracks cumulative doses per manufacturer; by mid-2021 global volumes were dominated by China's Sinovac/Sinopharm and by Pfizer/BioNTech, not by AstraZeneca. AstraZeneca later reported ~3 billion doses SUPPLIED cumulatively only by early 2022, not administered-by-mid-2021.

    Evidence

Corrections

No public corrections.

Scored record

Misssociety

“there's no way that's going to happen in the next year or two so lockdowns are the only Public Health policy they have”

China will not develop its own mRNA vaccine within one to two years of May 2022 (by approximately May 2024), leaving lockdowns as its only public-health tool.

Made on
2022-05-22
Outcome
Miss
Importance
3 / 5
Contribution
-2.65

Criterion

Resolution status
resolved
Resolved on
2023-03-22

By approximately 2024-05-22, China has not produced its own domestically developed mRNA COVID vaccine in use.

Criterion (by ~2024-05-22 China has NOT produced its own domestically developed mRNA COVID vaccine in use) is NOT met: China's NMPA authorized the domestically developed SYS6006 (CSPC) mRNA vaccine for emergency use on 22 March 2023, with a second domestic mRNA candidate (RQ3013) in late-stage trials. resolved_on set to 2023-03-22 (the regulatory authorization date). One mild caveat for the 'in use' wording: the approval came just after China exited zero-COVID (Dec 2022) amid falling infections, and public reporting did not detail mass-deployment numbers; however the vaccine was domestically developed and authorized/available for use, satisfying the 'produced its own domestically developed mRNA vaccine in use' test. No credible evidence supports the predicted no-mRNA-vaccine outcome. Outcome value (o) not assigned per stage scope.

Sources

  • Tianjin, COVID, and Losing Chinese Labor

    YouTube ·

    Source

Outcome evidence

  • China approved its first domestically developed mRNA COVID-19 vaccine — SYS6006, made by CSPC Pharmaceutical Group — for emergency use on 22 March 2023, well before the ~2024-05-22 deadline. Al Jazeera reported the National/Beijing regulator granted emergency-use authorization; clinical data cited ~85.3% efficacy 14–28 days after a booster. This directly contradicts the claim that China would NOT develop its own mRNA vaccine within one-to-two years of May 2022.

    Evidence

  • Peer-reviewed and trade literature confirm SYS6006 (CSPC) was 'authorized for emergent use in China by the NMPA in March 2023' and was 'the first approved SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine in China,' a domestically developed full-length-spike mRNA vaccine that progressed through Phase 1–3 trials in Chinese participants.

    Evidence

  • A second domestically developed Chinese mRNA vaccine, RQ3013 (RNACure / Fudan University / Walvax), also advanced through clinical trials including a Phase 3 trial reporting relative efficacy vs. another Chinese vaccine — further demonstrating that China developed indigenous mRNA COVID vaccines within the prediction window (by ~May 2024), not solely lockdowns as a public-health tool.

    Evidence

Corrections

No public corrections.

Scored record

Missenergy

“we're going to see a broad-scale failure in europe particularly in germany of all things green probably this year and certainly next year”

Europe, especially Germany, will see a broad-scale failure of green/renewable energy by the end of 2023.

Made on
2022-08-02
Outcome
Miss
Importance
4 / 5
Contribution
-3.53

Criterion

Resolution status
resolved
Resolved on
2024-01-31

Europe (notably Germany) experiences a broad failure of its renewable-energy strategy by end-2023 (e.g. forced reversion to fossil/other generation, inability to meet demand from green sources) — qualitative but assessable as a broad reversal.

Claim: Europe (esp. Germany) sees a 'broad-scale failure of green/renewable energy by end-2023' (forced reversion to fossils, inability to meet demand from green sources). By the 2023-12-31 deadline the opposite is documented: Germany's renewable share rose to a record (~52% of consumption / ~57-60% of net generation), coal-fired generation FELL by ~one third to multi-decade lows, wholesale prices fell sharply, and there was no demand-met failure or systemic blackout. Germany did briefly extend some coal/lignite plants and delayed its last nuclear closure to April 2023 during the acute 2022 crisis, but these were temporary bridging measures that were reversed, not a 'broad-scale failure' of the green strategy — so the qualitative-but-assessable criterion resolves against the claim having materialized. The narrative is robust and corroborated across official German government (BMWE), official research (Fraunhofer ISE) and specialist (Clean Energy Wire) sources; no credible source describes a broad 2023 collapse of German/European renewables. Caveat for the scoring stage: a critical EJF briefing ('Coal-Powered Crisis', June 2023) highlights the real (if temporary) 2022-23 coal/lignite uptick and its harms — relevant color, but it documents a transient rebound that was subsequently reversed, not the predicted end-2023 broad failure.

Sources

  • Electricity in Transition

    YouTube ·

    Source

Outcome evidence

  • Clean Energy Wire: Germany's coal-fired power production fell by almost one third (48 TWh) in 2023, cutting coal's share to 26% of net generation; lignite power output fell to the lowest level since 1963 and hard-coal power to the lowest since 1955. The 2022 energy-crisis coal rebound was reversed — the OPPOSITE of a broad green-energy failure / forced reversion to fossil fuels.

    Evidence

  • Fraunhofer ISE (official German research institute): in H1 2023 renewables reached a record 57.7% share of German net public electricity generation — demonstrating green sources were meeting, not failing to meet, demand.

    Evidence

  • German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs (BMWE) Energiewende newsletter: looking back at 2023, renewables crossed the 50% mark of electricity consumption for the first time — an official government statement of success, not failure.

    Evidence

  • Clean Energy Wire ('Transition state of play – Germany is emerging from the energy crisis'): Germany came through the 2022-23 crisis without the predicted collapse; 2023 wholesale day-ahead power averaged ~92 EUR/MWh vs ~240 EUR/MWh in 2022, and power-sector CO2 emissions hit a ~70-year low. No broad failure of the renewable strategy.

    Evidence

Corrections

No public corrections.

All scored records

Every scored record, linked to its full page.

Timeline

Scored records over time.

Each dot is one scored record, placed by prediction date and outcome. Hover a dot for details, or click it to open the full record.

Peter Zeihan scored timeline75%50%25%2021202220232024HitMissSep 29, 2020 · Hit · geopolitics · importance 4 · The World Trade Organization's formal dispute-resolution structures will be effectively collapsed (non-functional) by the end of 2023.Sep 30, 2020 · Miss · geopolitics · importance 4 · The New START strategic arms-reduction treaty will not be renewed/extended by either the US or Russia and will lapse.Dec 3, 2020 · Miss · society · importance 4 · The US will reach COVID-19 herd immunity (roughly 70-85% of the population immunized) by the end of summer 2021.Dec 21, 2020 · Miss · society · importance 3 · Within four to six months (by roughly mid-2021), the Oxford/AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine will be used by more people worldwide than Pfizer and Moderna combined, by a significant margin.Dec 21, 2020 · Miss · society · importance 2 · About six weeks after vaccine distribution began (Dec 20, 2020), roughly three times as many people will have received Moderna as Pfizer.Dec 21, 2020 · Miss · society · importance 3 · Within roughly six months, the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine will outsell Pfizer and Moderna combined.Mar 1, 2021 · Hit · society · importance 2 · The pace of US COVID-19 vaccinations will explode (sharply accelerate) within weeks of early March 2021.Mar 1, 2021 · 75% outcome · society · importance 3 · The UK, South African, and Brazilian COVID-19 variants will collectively become the dominant strains in most of the world, including the US, by March 2021.Jun 4, 2021 · Miss · society · importance 4 · The United States will experience one final wave of COVID-19 infections in summer 2021, with no further waves after it.Jun 4, 2021 · Miss · economy · importance 5 · The United States will record its greatest economic growth on record (to that point) later in 2021.Jun 23, 2021 · Miss · economy · importance 4 · Within roughly two to four years, many minimum-wage jobs will be permanently eliminated by automation and will not return.Aug 16, 2021 · Hit · economy · importance 3 · Corporate adoption of employee vaccine mandates / shifting COVID costs onto unvaccinated staff will explode across the US business community within the next couple of months (by roughly mid-October 2021).Aug 24, 2021 · Hit · society · importance 2 · COVID-19 booster (third) shots will become available in the US around October 2021.Aug 24, 2021 · Miss · politics · importance 3 · A cascade of COVID-19-related mandates will affect a plurality of American workers by the end of 2021, accelerating thereafter.Sep 17, 2021 · Hit · geopolitics · importance 3 · Following US withdrawal from Afghanistan, local Afghan militant groups will soon turn on each other or on regional powers.Sep 17, 2021 · Miss · tech · importance 4 · The current semiconductor supply-chain disruption will be resolved within roughly 9 to 12 months.Sep 17, 2021 · Miss · politics · importance 2 · The US Postal Service will announce a COVID-19 vaccine mandate within a week of September 17, 2021.Sep 20, 2021 · Miss · geopolitics · importance 3 · Australia will very soon field air- and sea-launched cruise missiles with a range exceeding 1,500 miles.Dec 29, 2021 · Hit · geopolitics · importance 5 · If Russia invades Ukraine, it will not achieve a quick (<3-month) conquest; taking and occupying Ukraine would instead take well over a year and bog the Russian army down in a prolonged occupation.Feb 24, 2022 · Hit · markets · importance 3 · Cryptocurrency holders will have a very rough year in 2022 as cheap money ends and capital regulation increases.Feb 24, 2022 · Hit · economy · importance 4 · The US Federal Reserve will deliver larger, sooner rate hikes than previously expected to bring inflation under control (within ~12 months, by ~2023-02).Feb 24, 2022 · Hit · economy · importance 4 · The era of near-zero-rate 'free money' (which fueled crypto and meme-stock speculation) is ending.Feb 24, 2022 · Miss · geopolitics · importance 4 · Kazakhstan will lose its independence and become at best a Russian satellite state (like Armenia or Belarus).Feb 24, 2022 · Hit · economy · importance 4 · The era of low US interest rates will end within about 12 months of February 2022.Feb 24, 2022 · Hit · geopolitics · importance 4 · After initial advances, Russian forces will face a prolonged town-by-town, village-by-village pacification campaign across Ukraine.Feb 24, 2022 · Hit · geopolitics · importance 5 · Russia will attempt a wholesale capture and occupation of all of Ukraine, aiming to control the entire territory.Feb 24, 2022 · Hit · economy · importance 4 · US interest rates will rise multiple times during calendar year 2022.Feb 24, 2022 · 25% outcome · markets · importance 4 · Global wheat prices will at least triple due to the combined loss of Russian and Ukrainian production.Mar 7, 2022 · Hit · geopolitics · importance 2 · Ukraine will soon begin sabotaging its own infrastructure to deter Russian forces.Mar 8, 2022 · 25% outcome · markets · importance 4 · Global oil prices will rise to at least $200 per barrel following the removal of Russia's ~5 million bbl/day of crude exports.Mar 8, 2022 · Miss · energy · importance 5 · As much as 5 million barrels per day of Russian crude will come offline within roughly three months of March 2022.Mar 8, 2022 · Miss · energy · importance 4 · The drop-off in Russian oil output will be steep rather than gradual.Mar 17, 2022 · Hit · society · importance 3 · More than 500,000 skilled Russians will flee Russia by the end of 2022.Mar 17, 2022 · Hit · energy · importance 3 · US shale will add approximately 1,000,000 barrels per day of new production capacity within 12 months of March 2022.Mar 18, 2022 · Miss · energy · importance 4 · Russia's ability to produce crude oil will fall by at least 50% as Western firms/technology withdraw after the Ukraine invasion.Mar 22, 2022 · Miss · energy · importance 4 · A multilateral ban on Russian oil will be enacted in April 2022.Mar 23, 2022 · Miss · energy · importance 5 · Within a few weeks of March 23, 2022, ~4 million b/d of Russian crude leaving the market will produce the single largest oil-market disruption in human history.Mar 23, 2022 · Hit · energy · importance 3 · Russia's oil pipeline and refinery systems will back up, forcing production shut-ins within 30 days (by ~2022-04-22).Apr 7, 2022 · Hit · economy · importance 5 · Russia can sustain its current economic system for at least one year (until ~2023-04) using its gold/currency reserves.Apr 14, 2022 · Miss · geopolitics · importance 4 · Russia will lose its naval presence in the Black Sea within roughly two months of April 2022 (by ~2022-06-14).Apr 14, 2022 · Miss · society · importance 3 · Shenzhen and Guangzhou will be placed under COVID lockdown within a few days of April 14, 2022 (by approximately April 19, 2022).Apr 18, 2022 · 25% outcome · geopolitics · importance 4 · Sweden and Finland will both accede to NATO, joining together, with about a 67% probability.Apr 18, 2022 · Hit · geopolitics · importance 2 · It will be known whether Sweden and Finland will apply for NATO membership before June 1, 2022.Apr 28, 2022 · 25% outcome · society · importance 4 · At least six million internally displaced people inside Ukraine will flee Ukraine as refugees before long.May 4, 2022 · Hit · geopolitics · importance 2 · Ukraine will fare poorly militarily (suffer setbacks) in the first weeks of May 2022 amid the eastern artillery war.May 4, 2022 · Hit · geopolitics · importance 5 · The Ukraine-Russia war will last months, probably years, beyond May 2022.May 5, 2022 · Miss · energy · importance 4 · Maritime insurance restrictions will reduce Russian oil exports more than the phased-in EU sanctions over the next couple of months (by roughly July 2022).May 10, 2022 · Hit · geopolitics · importance 3 · Heavy western military equipment (howitzers and long-range artillery) will reach Ukrainian front lines during May 2022.May 10, 2022 · Hit · geopolitics · importance 2 · The United States will continue publicly disclosing Russian military plans before Russia can act on them.May 12, 2022 · Hit · geopolitics · importance 4 · The Russian government will not be changed by a popular revolt or mass uprising, at least within about a year of May 2022.May 19, 2022 · Hit · tech · importance 3 · Building out, from scratch, multiple supply lines incorporating advanced semiconductors for the relevant weapon systems will not be accomplished in under a year (not before ~May 2023).May 19, 2022 · Miss · geopolitics · importance 3 · Ukraine will stop receiving this type of US weapons/materiel support within about five or six months of May 2022 (by ~October–November 2022) because US stockpiles will be exhausted.May 19, 2022 · Miss · geopolitics · importance 3 · The US will exhaust ("run dry" on) its stockpile of the relevant munitions/materiel being supplied to Ukraine by the end of calendar year 2022.May 22, 2022 · Miss · society · importance 3 · China will not develop its own mRNA vaccine within one to two years of May 2022 (by approximately May 2024), leaving lockdowns as its only public-health tool.May 22, 2022 · Miss · geopolitics · importance 3 · The Sweden/Finland NATO negotiations in the following week (late May 2022) will succeed in resolving the parties' core interests.May 22, 2022 · 25% outcome · geopolitics · importance 4 · Sweden will stop protecting the Kurds (throw them "under the bus"), and Turkey will then approve Swedish and Finnish NATO membership.May 26, 2022 · Miss · economy · importance 4 · The eurozone and Japan will probably never again have positive (central-bank policy) interest rates.May 26, 2022 · Miss · economy · importance 4 · The US will be able to borrow at lower interest cost, for longer than markets have priced in, for decades to come — so long as its economy stays consumer-driven with healthy demography.Jun 23, 2022 · 25% outcome · energy · importance 4 · Most of Europe will follow Germany in removing natural gas from its energy mix and bringing coal back.Jun 23, 2022 · 75% outcome · economy · importance 4 · Europe's energy-induced recession will expand into a broader industrial recession lasting a significant time.Jun 23, 2022 · Miss · energy · importance 4 · Europe will undertake a massive new coal build (starting in Germany and spreading), completely obliterating Europe's climate goals.Jun 23, 2022 · Miss · geopolitics · importance 3 · NATO navies will begin seizing Russian oil tankers within about 12 months of June 2022.Jun 28, 2022 · Hit · politics · importance 3 · China will face repeated cycles of COVID lockdowns, with Shanghai and other cities returning to lockdown multiple times.Jul 11, 2022 · 25% outcome · energy · importance 4 · All Russian natural-gas pipelines crossing Ukraine and Belarus to Europe/Germany will be shut down within months (by end of 2022 / early 2023).Jul 11, 2022 · 25% outcome · economy · importance 5 · Germany's export-manufacturing economic model will collapse and effectively vanish by 2023-07-11.Jul 14, 2022 · Hit · economy · importance 4 · The US Federal Reserve will deliver another sharp rate increase very soon and at least one or two more before the end of 2022.Jul 14, 2022 · Miss · economy · importance 3 · Ukraine will become a net food importer before the end of 2022 and remain so for at least several years.Jul 14, 2022 · Miss · economy · importance 2 · US inflation readings for August and September 2022 will be as bad as or worse than recent readings.Aug 2, 2022 · Miss · energy · importance 4 · Europe, especially Germany, will see a broad-scale failure of green/renewable energy by the end of 2023.Aug 2, 2022 · 75% outcome · society · importance 4 · The winter of 2022-2023 will be harsh in Europe.Aug 2, 2022 · Hit · geopolitics · importance 3 · Nancy Pelosi will travel to Taiwan within the next few days (~by 2022-08-04).Aug 2, 2022 · 25% outcome · energy · importance 4 · The remaining Russian gas pipelines crossing Ukraine and Belarus into Europe/Germany will be shut down by the end of 2022 due to war or partisan damage.Aug 5, 2022 · Miss · geopolitics · importance 4 · 2022 will be the last year Ukraine participates in international grain markets.Aug 5, 2022 · Miss · markets · importance 4 · Global wheat prices will more than double as a result of the Ukraine disruption.Sep 2, 2022 · Miss · geopolitics · importance 3 · If Ukraine recaptures Kherson, it will control/cut the North Crimean Canal, depriving Crimea of its primary water supply.Sep 6, 2022 · 50% outcome · society · importance 3 · Updated hybrid mRNA COVID vaccines (Wuhan + Omicron BA.4/BA.5) will be released in fall 2022 and be about as effective against new variants as the original vaccine was against the original variant.Sep 7, 2022 · Miss · geopolitics · importance 5 · Russia's military-industrial complex will collapse within the next few years (by ~2025), losing the capacity to sustain military production.Sep 8, 2022 · Miss · energy · importance 4 · European natural gas prices spike sharply (go 'through the roof') during winter 2022-2023 as demand peaks.Sep 15, 2022 · Hit · geopolitics · importance 3 · Israel will conduct significant military strikes against Syria in a very short period from September 2022.Sep 15, 2022 · Miss · geopolitics · importance 3 · Moldova will resolve the Transnistria secessionist situation within one to two years (by ~2024).Sep 15, 2022 · Miss · geopolitics · importance 3 · After Israeli-Syrian conflict, Syria sues for peace and the Syrian Civil War reopens without Russian involvement.Sep 15, 2022 · Hit · geopolitics · importance 2 · US-Cuba diplomatic engagement rebounds and increases under the Biden Administration.Sep 16, 2022 · Hit · geopolitics · importance 4 · Russian-European economic and political integration does not resume in the near term.Sep 17, 2022 · 25% outcome · geopolitics · importance 5 · The entire US-China corporate relationship collapses over the next one to three years.Sep 19, 2022 · Hit · geopolitics · importance 5 · Russia will not use nuclear weapons in the Ukraine conflict.Sep 22, 2022 · Miss · energy · importance 4 · Russian oil production east of the Urals (eastern Siberia) will fall to zero within about three years due to loss of foreign technical expertise needed to maintain the reservoirs.Sep 30, 2022 · Hit · politics · importance 4 · The 2022 Iranian protests do not succeed in overthrowing the clerical regime.Oct 8, 2022 · Hit · geopolitics · importance 2 · The damaged Kerch Bridge road span takes at minimum one week to repair from 2022-10-08, if it can be repaired at allOct 13, 2022 · Hit · geopolitics · importance 2 · The Kerch Bridge will not be repaired/fully operational in October 2022, and probably not in November 2022 eitherOct 17, 2022 · Miss · tech · importance 5 · China will be permanently unable to manufacture advanced chips for cars or computers (its advanced-semiconductor manufacturing capability is dead).Oct 17, 2022 · Miss · tech · importance 5 · Chinese industries dependent on advanced semiconductor hardware will collapse without access to high-end chips.Oct 17, 2022 · 25% outcome · tech · importance 4 · Over the next two to three years China will be largely cut out ('melon scooped') of all global semiconductorsOct 17, 2022 · Miss · tech · importance 5 · China will experience at least an order-of-magnitude drop in its capacity to operate in any tech-focused sectorOct 17, 2022 · Miss · tech · importance 5 · China's technological rise is over and its technological capability will now declineOct 17, 2022 · 25% outcome · economy · importance 5 · The German manufacturing model will completely collapse within one to two years of October 2022Oct 17, 2022 · Hit · geopolitics · importance 3 · Germany will very soon become one of the largest donors of military aid to Ukraine.Nov 3, 2022 · Miss · economy · importance 4 · Germany will be the first European country to impose broad capital controls.Nov 3, 2022 · Hit · economy · importance 4 · The US will attract large inflows of foreign capital from around the world as US interest rates rise.Nov 3, 2022 · Miss · economy · importance 4 · By the end of Q1 2023, it will be impossible to get a US mortgage with a rate below 9%Nov 10, 2022 · Miss · geopolitics · importance 4 · Russia will be unable to conduct meaningful offensive military operations in Ukraine until at least May 2023Nov 11, 2022 · Miss · economy · importance 3 · American Airlines will cease to exist as a going concern (bankruptcy/failure to operate independently) because debt-service costs exceed annual revenue as rates riseNov 14, 2022 · Miss · geopolitics · importance 5 · By spring 2023, Ukraine's shutoff of the Crimean Canal will cause a large-scale famine that destroys Russia's ability to hold a functional military position in Crimea, forcing evacuation or military collapseNov 14, 2022 · Miss · geopolitics · importance 4 · Russia will either withdraw from Crimea in a humiliating retreat or suffer a catastrophic military defeat there — no outcome avoids severe Russian humiliation in this phaseNov 14, 2022 · Miss · geopolitics · importance 4 · If Russia does not fully retreat from southern territories, Russia will suffer a catastrophic military defeat in southern Ukraine within several months (by early-mid 2023).Nov 22, 2022 · Miss · economy · importance 4 · European auto manufacturing will collapse (be effectively gone) within less than a year (by late 2023).Nov 22, 2022 · Miss · economy · importance 5 · European auto manufacturing will be completely shut down within one year (by November 2023), along with nitrogen-based fertilizer production, aluminum smelting, and most steel foundries.Nov 22, 2022 · Miss · energy · importance 4 · Winter 2023-2024 will be far tougher for Europe's energy situation than winter 2022-2023, due to reduced storage-refill capacity.Nov 25, 2022 · Hit · geopolitics · importance 4 · Russia will increasingly shift strategy toward destroying Ukrainian infrastructure to make Ukraine unable to function as a country.Nov 25, 2022 · Hit · geopolitics · importance 4 · Ukraine and Russia will engage in a major all-out battle in spring 2023 (once the mud clears and both sides are mobilized).Nov 28, 2022 · Miss · geopolitics · importance 4 · By May 2023, Ukraine's tank/artillery force will be roughly four to six times its strength at the start of the war.Dec 1, 2022 · Miss · politics · importance 3 · The federal government / Biden administration will intervene on the side of the unions in the US rail labor dispute.Dec 14, 2022 · Hit · society · importance 5 · China will suffer probably millions of deaths in a relatively short period as three years of COVID exposure compress into a few weeks after the end of zero-COVID.Dec 14, 2022 · Miss · economy · importance 4 · China's manufacturing sector will be effectively offline for at least three to four months from mid-December 2022 as the COVID wave spreads through the population.Dec 19, 2022 · Miss · geopolitics · importance 4 · By May 2023, Ukrainian air power with JDAMs will prove decisive — Ukraine able to strike targets within range with near-unrestricted air access.Dec 20, 2022 · Hit · economy · importance 2 · In the short and mid term, Indiana will remain one of the few healthy pockets of the US steel industry because it retains foundries to make its own pig ironDec 23, 2022 · Hit · politics · importance 4 · The Biden administration will impose more, not fewer, punitive tariffs on imports.Jan 2, 2023 · Miss · geopolitics · importance 3 · Middle East food imports from Latin America (chiefly Brazil) will be cut off / go awayJan 11, 2023 · Miss · energy · importance 2 · Europe's unusually warm winter will reverse to cold conditions within about two weeks of January 11, 2023.Jan 12, 2023 · Miss · geopolitics · importance 4 · Russia will conduct further mobilizations of personnel beyond the current one because it cannot substitute technology for infantry.Jan 13, 2023 · Miss · economy · importance 3 · Russia's fertilizer exports to Brazil will be disrupted in the near future as a result of the Ukraine war.Jan 17, 2023 · Hit · geopolitics · importance 3 · Germany will relent and allow other countries to send their Leopard tanks to Ukraine within a very short number of weeks.Jan 17, 2023 · Hit · geopolitics · importance 4 · Germany will publicly decide in February or March 2023 to contribute its own Leopard tanks and ramp up industrial production/refurbishment of Leopards for UkraineJan 19, 2023 · Miss · geopolitics · importance 5 · Saudi Arabia and Iran will have a direct military confrontation within about a year (by early 2024).Jan 24, 2023 · Miss · geopolitics · importance 4 · Russia will have a minimum of an additional 500,000 men in the field in Ukraine by May–June 2023Jan 24, 2023 · Miss · geopolitics · importance 4 · Russia will launch a large-scale multi-axis assault on Ukraine in spring 2023 using its additional mobilized manpowerJan 24, 2023 · Hit · geopolitics · importance 3 · In spring/summer 2023 Russia will shift its targeting in Ukraine from electricity infrastructure to agricultural infrastructureJan 25, 2023 · Hit · geopolitics · importance 3 · It will take a minimum of one year, probably closer to three, to build the support infrastructure to field an appreciable number of Abrams tanks in UkraineJan 25, 2023 · Hit · geopolitics · importance 3 · Leopard tanks will be on the front lines in Ukraine within two to four months (by ~May 2023), in time for the spring offensiveJan 26, 2023 · Miss · geopolitics · importance 4 · At least one million Russian men aged 20-30 will be committed to the war in Ukraine within six months (by ~July 2023)Jan 31, 2023 · Miss · tech · importance 3 · South Korea will join the US-led semiconductor export-control system by the end of 2023Feb 1, 2023 · Miss · energy · importance 4 · China's global leadership in the solar manufacturing sector will endFeb 1, 2023 · Hit · energy · importance 3 · Solar panel manufacturing will return to / be established in the United StatesFeb 7, 2023 · Hit · society · importance 2 · The Turkey-Syria earthquake death toll will exceed 20,000 within one week of 2023-02-07Feb 9, 2023 · Miss · geopolitics · importance 4 · Russia will have 750,000 troops deployed in Ukraine by the end of May 2023.Feb 10, 2023 · 25% outcome · geopolitics · importance 3 · By Spring 2023, Russia will shift from targeting Ukrainian civilian electrical infrastructure to targeting food production and transport.Feb 10, 2023 · Miss · economy · importance 4 · The world is about to lose Ukraine as the fifth-largest wheat, fourth-largest corn, and top oilseeds exporter, with no country able to replace that capacity.Feb 10, 2023 · Hit · economy · importance 2 · US egg prices will remain elevated for another three to four months (through approximately May-June 2023).Feb 16, 2023 · 25% outcome · economy · importance 4 · The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by at least one more full percentage point, and likely closer to three, from the current level.Feb 16, 2023 · Miss · economy · importance 5 · Over the next two to three years, global available capital will fall by at least a third.Feb 16, 2023 · Miss · economy · importance 4 · Over the next two to three years, US financial-sector employment will fall by roughly one third.Feb 20, 2023 · Hit · geopolitics · importance 3 · The Wagner Group will cease to operate as a meaningful military force by the end of 2023.Feb 23, 2023 · 50% outcome · geopolitics · importance 3 · Russia's deployed troop count in Ukraine will reach approximately 600,000-700,000 by May-June 2023.Feb 23, 2023 · 25% outcome · geopolitics · importance 3 · By May 2023 the Ukraine war will be in a very fluid strategic environment, most likely with Ukrainian forces shifting to a defensive posture.Feb 28, 2023 · Miss · economy · importance 4 · There will be significant global food inflation later in 2023.Feb 28, 2023 · Miss · economy · importance 5 · Inflation over the next several years (through ~2026) will be at least as high as in 2022; 2022 will prove the lowest-inflation year of that stretch.Feb 28, 2023 · 25% outcome · economy · importance 2 · US car prices will improve significantly over the next three months (by approximately June 2023).Feb 28, 2023 · Hit · economy · importance 2 · US inflation will continue to drop for the next couple of months (through approximately April-May 2023).Mar 15, 2023 · Hit · economy · importance 4 · More US banks will fail beyond Silvergate, Signature, and Silicon Valley Bank.Mar 20, 2023 · Hit · economy · importance 4 · China's phosphate exports will fall essentially to zero.Mar 20, 2023 · Miss · economy · importance 3 · China's pork supply chain will experience significant disruptions from African swine fever, as bad as or worse than the 2018-2019 outbreak.Mar 21, 2023 · Miss · geopolitics · importance 4 · In May-June 2023, Russia will switch from targeting Ukrainian power infrastructure to targeting agricultural infrastructure (fertilizer plants, grain silos, transshipment, rail, ports).Mar 21, 2023 · Miss · geopolitics · importance 4 · Calendar year 2022 was Ukraine's final year as a significant agricultural exporter.Mar 23, 2023 · Miss · geopolitics · importance 4 · The Black Sea Grain Initiative will not be renewed at the late-May 2023 renewal point.Mar 23, 2023 · Miss · geopolitics · importance 4 · Ukraine will cease to be a significant agricultural exporter from 2023 onward, as Russia destroys its grain-export infrastructure.Apr 3, 2023 · Miss · politics · importance 4 · Joe Biden will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination.Apr 3, 2023 · Hit · politics · importance 4 · Donald Trump will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.Apr 4, 2023 · Hit · geopolitics · importance 4 · Sweden will join NATO in the near future following Finland's April 2023 accession.Apr 5, 2023 · 50% outcome · geopolitics · importance 3 · Turkey will ratify Finland's NATO membership by mid-April 2023 and ratify Sweden's within about two months thereafter.Apr 7, 2023 · Miss · geopolitics · importance 5 · China will collapse / reach the end of the country within the next several years, driven by demographic, financial, and political crises.Apr 14, 2023 · Hit · politics · importance 3 · Water allocation in the American Southwest will be a major, unavoidable political conflict over the next few years.May 8, 2023 · Miss · energy · importance 4 · Chile will move to nationalize its copper industry (as it did with lithium) within roughly one to three years.May 9, 2023 · Hit · geopolitics · importance 3 · Russia will shift its strikes in Ukraine toward the agricultural supply-chain system during the 2023 warm-season counter-offensive phase.May 9, 2023 · Miss · geopolitics · importance 4 · Meaningful agricultural exports from Ukraine will end once Russia declines to renew the Black Sea Grain Initiative.May 10, 2023 · Hit · geopolitics · importance 3 · The Ukrainian counter-offensive will begin in the last week of May or in June 2023.May 12, 2023 · Hit · geopolitics · importance 4 · Sweden will join NATO within about a year (by ~2024-05-12), even if Erdogan wins re-election.May 18, 2023 · Miss · economy · importance 4 · Only about 10% of Ukraine's grain will be exported in 2023.May 22, 2023 · Hit · geopolitics · importance 3 · The Western industrial complex will become a meaningful factor in supplying equipment to Ukraine in the second half of 2024.May 23, 2023 · Hit · politics · importance 5 · The US will not default on its debt in the 2023 standoff; Congress will reach a last-minute compromise at the deadline.Jun 1, 2023 · Miss · geopolitics · importance 5 · The US will formally recognize Taiwanese independence within about a year (by ~mid-2024).Jun 7, 2023 · 75% outcome · geopolitics · importance 2 · The Kakhovka reservoir will fully drain within a few days, causing massive downstream flooding that, when it recedes about one to two weeks later, will leave extremely muddy conditions.Jun 7, 2023 · Miss · society · importance 5 · Within about a year, Ukraine will go from a major agricultural exporter to a net food importer on the verge of at least a regional famine.Jun 13, 2023 · Miss · politics · importance 5 · The Democrats (Biden) will win the 2024 US election in a landslide, even flipping normally-Republican states such as Texas.Jun 13, 2023 · 50% outcome · politics · importance 3 · Trump will win roughly 40% (about twice the ~20% nomination threshold) of the Republican primary vote in the 2024 contest.Jun 13, 2023 · Hit · politics · importance 4 · Donald Trump will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.Jun 16, 2023 · Hit · geopolitics · importance 4 · Russia will soon begin actively targeting Ukrainian grain shipments.Jul 28, 2023 · Miss · society · importance 3 · Within a year, Ukraine will lose the capacity to feed its own population and become a food importer (its 2023 winter-wheat crop being its last sizable harvest to reach international markets).Jun 12, 2024 · Miss · energy · importance 3 · Within a year (maybe a year and a half), Venezuela will become a net oil importer, with full societal collapse following over the next few years, because without majors like Chevron it will lose oil-production capacity.
gained pointslost pointsdot size = importance

Per-topic score

Scores broken down by topic.

politics

Score
-11
Scored records
27

coin flip

markets

Small sample
Score
-26
Scored records
10

Too few scored records to label this topic yet.

economy

Score
-55
Scored records
63

strong negative

geopolitics

Score
-62
Scored records
103

strong negative

society

Score
-65
Scored records
32

strong negative

tech

Small sample
Score
-79
Scored records
10

Too few scored records to label this topic yet.

energy

Score
-80
Scored records
28

strong negative

How this was computed

How this score was computed.

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Methodology version
v1.0.0
Last computed

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Evidence firstMethodology