Prediction record
MisseconomyThe United States will record its greatest economic growth on record (to that point) later in 2021.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Misseconomy“participate in what's going to be the greatest economic growth on record in the united states to this point which will happen later this year”
The United States will record its greatest economic growth on record (to that point) later in 2021.
- Made on
- 2021-06-04
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- -2.22
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-02-24
A US economic-growth measure (e.g., annual real GDP growth) for 2021 set a record high relative to the prior historical series.
Criterion is 'a US growth measure for 2021 set a record high relative to the prior historical series.' On annual real GDP (the example measure), 2021's 5.7% was the fastest since 1984 but NOT a record — many earlier years (1984 comparable; 1950 ~13%; 1941-43 ~17-19%) were higher. Evidence cuts AGAINST the written criterion for the standard annual real-GDP reading. Possible alternative readings (e.g., a quarterly figure, or a record in dollar/level terms, or a record for a post-WWII rebound) are not what the literal criterion states and were not substantiated as 'records.' Status set to resolved on the literal criterion; outcome value assignment deferred to later stage. made_on 2021-06-04, deadline 2021-12-31 (full-year 2021 data finalized in early 2022; resolved_on = BEA second/Q4-2021 estimate date).
Sources
Video Dispatch: 6/4/2021
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
BEA: U.S. real GDP increased 5.7 percent in 2021 (2020 annual level to 2021 annual level), in contrast to a 3.4 percent decrease in 2020. The release does NOT characterize 5.7% as a record or all-time high.
Washington Post / NBC News: 2021's 5.7% was the fastest full-year growth 'since 1984' — i.e., explicitly NOT a record relative to the prior series; 1984 (~5.6%) was comparable and earlier years were far higher.
Historical annual real GDP growth series: 1984 ~5.6%, 1950 ~13.4%, 1941 ~17.7%, 1942 ~18.9%, 1943 ~17.0% — multiple prior years exceeded 5.7%, so 2021 did not set a record high relative to the prior historical series.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-2.22- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- -2.22
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The United States will record its greatest economic growth…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-06-04
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources