Prediction record
HitgeopoliticsFollowing US withdrawal from Afghanistan, local Afghan militant groups will soon turn on each other or on regional powers.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Hitgeopolitics“the local militant groups do one of two things they go after one another which we're going to see very soon or they go after the regional powers”
Following US withdrawal from Afghanistan, local Afghan militant groups will soon turn on each other or on regional powers.
- Made on
- 2021-09-17
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.86
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-09-17
By ~2022-09-17, Afghan militant groups engage in significant internecine conflict or cross-border attacks on Pakistan, India, Russia, or China.
Criterion ('Afghan militant groups engage in significant internecine conflict OR cross-border attacks on Pakistan/India/Russia/China by ~2022-09-17') is satisfied on both prongs — TTP cross-border attacks on Pakistan from Afghan soil, and ISIS-K vs. Taliban internecine fighting. Note for the quantify judge: 'soon' (Zeihan's word) is somewhat elastic, but escalation was clearly underway within the first 6-8 months and well inside the one-year window. Sources are reputable secondary/analytical (USIP, Al Jazeera, Wikipedia synthesis of primary reporting) rather than a single statistical agency, which is appropriate for a conflict-event claim; multiple independent sources corroborate.
Sources
Where in the World: Split Rock, and Afghan Minerals
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
By the ~one-year deadline, Afghan-based militant groups engaged in BOTH significant internecine conflict AND cross-border attacks on a regional power. Cross-border on Pakistan: the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), operating from sanctuaries inside Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, sharply escalated cross-border attacks on Pakistani security forces through 2022; in April 2022 the TTP launched a spring offensive ('Operation Al-Badr') with a record ~54 attacks in a single month, and on 21 April 2022 Pakistan conducted retaliatory airstrikes inside Afghanistan, prompting the Afghan Taliban defense minister Mullah Yaqub to threaten retaliation — a direct cross-border militant-state escalation within the window.
Internecine conflict: the Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K) waged an active insurgency against the ruling Taliban throughout 2022, with frequent bombings and clashes — a clear case of Afghan militant groups turning on each other after the US withdrawal. ISIS-K also conducted attacks affecting the region (e.g., a 4 March 2022 suicide bombing of a Shiite mosque in Peshawar, Pakistan, killing ~63).
Al Jazeera (27 April 2022) reporting on the deadly Afghanistan-Pakistan border attacks and Pakistan's airstrikes inside Afghanistan, confirming cross-border violence tied to militant groups based in Afghanistan within the prediction window.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.86- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.86
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Following US withdrawal from Afghanistan, local Afghan mili…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-09-17
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources