Prediction record
HitsocietyCOVID-19 booster (third) shots will become available in the US around October 2021.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Hitsociety“third shot openings that are going to start next month”
COVID-19 booster (third) shots will become available in the US around October 2021.
- Made on
- 2021-08-24
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.91
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2021-09-24
By end of October 2021, COVID-19 booster (third) shots are authorized and being administered in the US.
Criterion ('by end of October 2021, COVID-19 booster/third shots authorized and being administered in the US') is clearly MET: Pfizer booster authorized 22 Sept (FDA) / recommended 23 Sept (ACIP), administration began week of 24 Sept 2021; Moderna & J&J boosters added ~20 Oct 2021 — all before the 2021-10-31 deadline. resolved_on set to 2021-09-24 (start of administration following ACIP recommendation). Sources are primary/official (CDC MMWR, FDA action) plus contemporaneous reporting. No conflicting evidence.
Sources
Where in the World: Skútustaðahreppur
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
COVID-19 booster (third) shots were authorized and being administered in the US in late September 2021, well before the 31 October 2021 deadline. The FDA amended the Pfizer-BioNTech EUA on 22 September 2021 to authorize a single booster dose for persons aged 65+, those at high risk of severe disease, and those with high occupational/institutional exposure; ACIP voted to recommend it on 23 September 2021, and administration began immediately thereafter (week of 24 September 2021).
NPR (23 September 2021): a CDC advisory panel (ACIP) backed Pfizer booster shots for older adults and high-risk groups, the step that cleared boosters to become available — confirming boosters were authorized and rolling out in the US in late September 2021, roughly when Zeihan predicted ('around October 2021').
Context: an additional (third) primary-series dose for immunocompromised people had already been authorized 12 August 2021; broader booster authorization for Moderna and Johnson & Johnson followed on ~20 October 2021 — so the entire window the claim references (around October 2021) saw active booster authorization and administration.
Corrections
- Date: Transcript upload_date is a scraping artifact shared by three videos; actual publish date is 2021-08-24 (zeihan.com byline; in-video FDA full approval 'yesterday' = 2021-08-23).
- Prediction timeframe: 'in the fall, probably October' is not in the transcript; only 'next month' is said.
- horizon deadline: From corrected made_on 2021-08-24, 'next month' = end of September 2021. Resolution unchanged.
Score contribution
+1.91- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.91
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
COVID-19 booster (third) shots will become available in the…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-08-24
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources