Prediction record
MisspoliticsA cascade of COVID-19-related mandates will affect a plurality of American workers by the end of 2021, accelerating thereafter.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Misspolitics“you should expect to see a cascade of mandates that are going to affect probably the plurality of american workers by the end of the year and only accelerating after that”
A cascade of COVID-19-related mandates will affect a plurality of American workers by the end of 2021, accelerating thereafter.
- Made on
- 2021-08-24
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2021-12-31
By end of 2021, COVID-19 vaccine/testing mandates applied to at least a plurality (largest share) of US workers.
Criterion (mandates applied to at least a plurality — largest share — of US workers by end of 2021) is NOT met. Measured employer-mandate coverage was 36% (a minority; the largest share of workers were under NO mandate). The headline OSHA ETS that would have reached two-thirds was enjoined and never took effect in 2021, and the federal contractor mandate was nationally enjoined Dec 7, 2021. Note attribution wrinkle: the 36% figure traces to a Gallup/SHRM workplace survey (one source attributes it to Gallup, the host article is SHRM) — verify stage should confirm the exact survey provenance. The claim's 'accelerating thereafter' clause is partly borne out only in that mandates kept being litigated/expanded attempts continued, but the plurality threshold for 2021 was not reached. Outcome value (o) and scoring deferred.
Sources
Where in the World: Skútustaðahreppur
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Gallup/SHRM tracking (reported via SHRM): the share of U.S. workers covered by an employer COVID-19 vaccine mandate reached 36% by October 2021 and held flat at 36% through December 2021 — a minority, not a plurality. Plateau attributed to federal mandates being tied up in court.
OSHA's Emergency Temporary Standard (vaccine-or-test for employers with 100+ employees, ~84 million workers / ~two-thirds of the private workforce) was issued Nov 5, 2021 but stayed by the Fifth Circuit Nov 6, 2021; the Sixth Circuit briefly dissolved the stay Dec 17, 2021 with non-enforcement until Jan 10/Feb 9, 2022. It did NOT take effect in 2021 (SCOTUS stayed it Jan 13, 2022; OSHA withdrew it Jan 25, 2022), so it cannot count toward end-of-2021 coverage.
Federal contractor mandate (EO 14042) was blocked nationwide by a U.S. District Court (S.D. Ga.) on Dec 7, 2021, and the 11th Circuit denied a stay Dec 17, 2021 — so it was not in force at end of 2021 either. Federal employees (~3.5M, >90% vaccinated by Nov 22, 2021) and CMS healthcare workers (~17M) were covered, but these plus voluntary employer mandates summed to roughly the 36% measured, well short of a plurality of the ~160M-strong US workforce.
Corrections
- Date: made_on used the corrupted shared upload_date 2021-09-17. The video's true air date is ~Aug 24 2021: in the opening Zeihan says 'yesterday I found out... the FDA gave full approval to the Pfizer vaccine', and Pfizer received FDA full approval on Aug 23 2021, so the recording is ~Aug 24 2021. (The title carries no date string, so this content anchor is authoritative.) The explicit 'by the end of the year' deadline (2021-12-31) and the resolution are unaffected; this is accuracy/consistency housekeeping aligned with the bulk-re-upload finding.
Score contribution
-0.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
A cascade of COVID-19-related mandates will affect a plural…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-08-24
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources