Prediction record
MisseconomyWithin roughly two to four years, many minimum-wage jobs will be permanently eliminated by automation and will not return.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Misseconomy“A lot of those minimum wage jobs will just be gone, never to return.”
Within roughly two to four years, many minimum-wage jobs will be permanently eliminated by automation and will not return.
- Made on
- 2021-06-23
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.78
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-06-23
By ~2025, a substantial share of pre-2021 minimum-wage job categories are automated away and do not return (checkable against employment-composition data).
Checkable against employment-composition data per the criterion. By the ~2025 deadline, the major minimum-wage job categories (food prep/serving, fast food/counter, retail) had NOT been substantially automated away; employment in these categories recovered past pre-2021/pre-pandemic levels and remained among the largest US occupations. Self-checkout, ordering kiosks, etc. reshaped some roles but did not produce the predicted permanent net elimination of these categories. Evidence runs against the claim. Note for downstream stages: the claim's phrasing ('many'/'substantial share') is qualitative; resolution rests on the documented fact that these categories grew rather than shrank, so the directional outcome is clear even though no single automation-attribution statistic exists.
Sources
Video Dispatch: Labor Markets, 6/23/2021
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (Table 1): fast food and counter workers numbered ~3.9 million and retail salespersons ~3.9 million — among the largest occupations in the US. These low-wage categories were NOT automated away; they remain at multi-million levels, contradicting the claim that many such jobs would be permanently eliminated and not return.
BLS The Economics Daily: food preparation and serving related occupations accounted for 8.7% of all US jobs (~13.2 million) in May 2023 — having recovered and grown past pre-pandemic levels rather than shrinking due to automation.
BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook (2024 data): food and beverage serving and related workers held ~5.0 million jobs in 2024, with employment projected to grow ~5% from 2024-2034 — i.e., these jobs persisted and are projected to expand, not be eliminated by automation.
Corrections
- Date: Actual publication date per video title 'Video Dispatch: Labor Markets, 6/23/2021'. Stored date is a mis-captured re-upload timestamp.
- horizon deadline: Far-end +4yr ('two three four years from now') must anchor from corrected made_on 2021-06-23.
- resolution resolved on: Align resolved_on to the corrected deadline; BLS evidence (2023-2025) post-dates it and still supports resolution.
Score contribution
-1.78- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.78
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Within roughly two to four years, many minimum-wage jobs wi…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-06-23
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources