Prediction record
MisssocietyAbout six weeks after vaccine distribution began (Dec 20, 2020), roughly three times as many people will have received Moderna as Pfizer.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Misssociety“distribution starts today december 20. so i expect a month six weeks from now that three times as many people will have gotten the moderna vaccine as have will have gotten the pfizer”
About six weeks after vaccine distribution began (Dec 20, 2020), roughly three times as many people will have received Moderna as Pfizer.
- Made on
- 2020-12-21
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.56
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2021-02-01
By ~early Feb 2021, US Moderna recipients outnumber Pfizer recipients by roughly 3:1 (checkable against distribution data).
Criterion = by ~early Feb 2021 (about six weeks after distribution began Dec 20, 2020), US Moderna recipients outnumber Pfizer recipients roughly 3:1, checkable against distribution data. The data point the opposite way: Pfizer led Moderna (~2:1 in the early cohort; 58%/38% cumulatively by Jan 2022) due to its one-week-earlier authorization and larger initial shipments. There is no credible evidence of a 3:1 Moderna lead at any point in early 2021. Evidence is consistent (no genuine conflict). Note: I report the direction/magnitude of the Pfizer-vs-Moderna split; no outcome value or score is assigned.
Sources
Vaccine Update 12/21/2020
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
CDC analysis of the early US rollout (vaccinated cohort Dec 2020–March 2021 across eight US locations) found 62.7% received Pfizer-BioNTech vs 29.6% Moderna — Pfizer led by roughly 2:1, the OPPOSITE direction from a 3:1 Moderna lead. Pfizer was authorized a week earlier (Dec 11 vs Dec 18, 2020) and shipped larger initial volumes.
Cumulative US dose totals remained Pfizer-majority well past early 2021: as of January 10, 2022, of 519M+ doses administered, 58% were Pfizer and 38% Moderna — confirming Pfizer, not Moderna, was the more-administered vaccine throughout the period including ~early Feb 2021.
By the end of February 2021, ~14.9% of the US population had received at least one dose; in the December 14, 2020–January 13, 2021 window 13.79M doses were administered total. Across all available manufacturer breakdowns Pfizer consistently exceeded Moderna in cumulative doses given in this period.
Corrections
- Date: 2021-09-17 is the YouTube re-upload date and post-dates the record's own deadline (2021-02-01), impossible for a forward prediction. Transcript (rXmqFO5Z7Cc) is December 2020: title 'Vaccine Update 12/21/2020'; in-clip 'distribution starts today december 20', 'merry christmas', 'see you in january'. Aligns with sibling oxford-outsells-mrna (corrected to 2020-12-21) and us-normal-by-fall-2021 (already 2020-12-21).
- Prediction timeframe: With made_on corrected to 2020-12-21 the re-upload caveat is obsolete; the deadline derives cleanly from the verbatim anchor and the in-clip 'today december 20'.
Score contribution
-0.56- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.56
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
About six weeks after vaccine distribution began (Dec 20, 2…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-12-21
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources