Prediction record
HitsocietyThe pace of US COVID-19 vaccinations will explode (sharply accelerate) within weeks of early March 2021.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Hitsociety“We're going to see an explosion in the pace of vaccinations in the weeks to come.”
The pace of US COVID-19 vaccinations will explode (sharply accelerate) within weeks of early March 2021.
- Made on
- 2021-03-01
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.91
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2021-04-19
Within roughly the months following early March 2021, the US daily COVID-19 vaccination rate rose sharply (a clear acceleration vs. the prior pace).
Criterion = whether the US daily vaccination rate rose sharply (clear acceleration vs prior pace) within roughly the months following early March 2021. Outcome: YES — the 7-day-average daily-dose rate roughly tripled from ~1M/day (Jan) to >3M/day (peak early-to-mid April 2021) before declining. Multiple sources (CDC MMWR initiation peaks, OWID/CDC daily-dose series) confirm a sharp acceleration in the weeks after early March, matching the prediction. Resolved in the prediction's favor on the directional claim. resolved_on set to ~April 19, 2021 (acceleration was unambiguous and cresting by mid-April). Outcome value/scoring deferred to a later stage. No conflicting credible evidence found.
Sources
COVID-19 Vaccine Update 3/1/2021
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
US daily vaccination pace accelerated sharply in the weeks after early March 2021: the US passed 100 million total doses on March 12, 2021; by April 3, 2021 more than 4 million doses were reported in 24 hours (a record), bringing the 7-day average above 3 million/day; the CDC reported a ~2.7 million/day 7-day average as of April 28, 2021. This is a clear, large acceleration from the early-2021 pace (roughly ~1 million/day in January).
CDC MMWR analyses show weekly vaccine initiation peaking in late March/early April 2021 (e.g., 7.5% of adults 50-64 initiated during the week of March 21; 18-29 and 30-49 peaking the week of April 4), then declining — confirming a sharp acceleration cresting in early April 2021 followed by a decline.
Our World in Data US daily-doses series (sourced from CDC) documents the 7-day-average daily doses rising steeply from ~1 million/day in January 2021 to a peak above 3 million/day in mid-April 2021 — the quantitative 'explosion' in pace within weeks of early March.
Corrections
- Date: Same bulk re-upload artifact as the other O7FJDb73SFQ records: the shared 2021-09-17 upload_date is not a genuine publish date (six videos share it across Dec-2020..Aug-2021 titles). Title 'COVID-19 Vaccine Update 3/1/2021' plus content (J&J EUA 'last week') fix the air date at ~March 1 2021. horizon.basis already states the deadline was computed '+3 months from ~March 2021 recording', so correcting made_on to 2021-03-01 makes the record internally consistent and matches the title-date convention applied to the sibling videos.
Score contribution
+1.91- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.91
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The pace of US COVID-19 vaccinations will explode (sharply…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-03-01
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources