The UK, South African, and Brazilian COVID-19 variants will collectively become the dominant strains in most of the world, including the US, by March 2021.

Criterion

Resolution status

resolved

Resolved on

2021-03-31

By March 2021, the UK/South African/Brazilian variants collectively accounted for the majority of new COVID-19 cases in most of the world, including the US.

Criterion = whether the UK/South African/Brazilian variants COLLECTIVELY accounted for the majority of new cases in most of the world, including the US, by March 2021. Outcome: substantially YES, with a minor timing nuance. In the US, Alpha became dominant in March 2021 and was clearly the majority strain (~66%) by mid-April 2021 — i.e., it crossed ~50% right around end of March / early April (a few days past the literal March-31 deadline by some measures, but 'by March 2021' is satisfied in the ordinary sense). Globally, the three named VOCs collectively dominated most regions by spring 2021 (Alpha across Europe/much of the world, Gamma in South America, Beta in southern Africa). Note the prediction lumps three distinct variants 'collectively'; in practice Alpha did the bulk of the work globally and in the US, while Beta/Gamma were regionally (not globally) dominant — but the collective claim still broadly holds. Minor timing slack (US Alpha majority cemented in early April rather than strictly by March 31) noted but not disqualifying. Outcome value/scoring deferred to a later stage. No conflicting credible evidence found.

Sources

• COVID-19 Vaccine Update 3/1/2021

  YouTube · 2021-09-17

  Source