Prediction record
HitmarketsCryptocurrency holders will have a very rough year in 2022 as cheap money ends and capital regulation increases.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“if you're one of those people who has bought into all of the hype around crypto, you are in for a very rough year”
Cryptocurrency holders will have a very rough year in 2022 as cheap money ends and capital regulation increases.
- Made on
- 2022-02-24
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.86
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-12-31
During 2022, major cryptocurrencies (e.g., Bitcoin) post a large net decline (e.g., ≥30% peak-to-trough or year-over-year loss).
Criterion ('During 2022, major cryptocurrencies (e.g., Bitcoin) post a large net decline, e.g., >=30% peak-to-trough or year-over-year loss') is clearly satisfied: Bitcoin posted ~64% YoY loss and ~77% peak-to-trough drawdown in 2022, accompanied by collapses of major crypto firms (Terra, Celsius, FTX). Both the magnitude and the qualitative 'rough year as cheap money ends' framing match. Note: exact closing prices vary slightly by data source/exchange/timezone (e.g., ~$16,500-$16,600 on Dec 31, 2022; ~$46,300 on Dec 31, 2021), but all credible sources agree the decline far exceeds 30%. Resolved. No outcome value assigned (later stage).
Sources
Fed Reserve
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin closed 2021 at approximately $46,300 (Dec 31, 2021) and closed 2022 at approximately $16,500 (Dec 31, 2022), a year-over-year decline of about 64% — far exceeding the >=30% threshold in the criterion. Year-end snapshots available on CoinMarketCap historical data.
Peak-to-trough, Bitcoin fell from its ~$69,000 all-time high (Nov 2021) to a 2022 low near $15,500-$16,000 in November 2022 (~77-78% drawdown). Major exchange/lender collapses in 2022 (Terra/LUNA in May, Celsius/3AC mid-year, FTX bankruptcy filing Nov 11, 2022) drove the decline, consistent with the 'very rough year' and tightening-money framing.
FTX, then a top crypto exchange, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on November 11, 2022, triggering a market-wide crisis of confidence and liquidity crunch — a concrete instance of the 'very rough year' for crypto holders and of the increased regulatory/capital scrutiny referenced in the claim.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.86- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.86
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Cryptocurrency holders will have a very rough year in 2022…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-02-24
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources