Prediction record
HitgeopoliticsRussia will attempt a wholesale capture and occupation of all of Ukraine, aiming to control the entire territory.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Hitgeopolitics“he's not going to stop until the entirety of the territory of terrain of ukraine is considered friendly as termed by the way moscow defines it. so we're talking looking here at a wholesale capture and probably followed by an occupation of the country”
Russia will attempt a wholesale capture and occupation of all of Ukraine, aiming to control the entire territory.
- Made on
- 2022-02-24
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- +4.77
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-03-20
Russia's 2022 campaign aims at and attempts occupation of the whole of Ukraine (drives toward Kyiv and nationwide control), not merely the east/south.
RESOLVED — criterion clearly met. Russia's February–March 2022 campaign drove toward Kyiv and pursued nationwide control (multi-front advance plus decapitation attempt on the capital and government), not merely an east/south land grab. resolved_on (2022-03-20) marks when the nationwide intent/attempt was unambiguously evident; the criterion concerns the aim and attempt of the campaign, which is satisfied regardless of the later failure to capture Kyiv. Sources are encyclopedic/institutional secondary; multiple independent accounts agree. No conflicting credible evidence.
Sources
Ukraine, and Russia's Invasion Paths
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Wikipedia, '2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine': by 20 March 2022 Russia's apparent primary goals were seizure of Kyiv, occupation of eastern Ukraine, and overthrow of the Ukrainian government; the invasion opened multiple fronts — northern (from Belarus toward Kyiv), southern (from Crimea), and eastern (Donbas toward Kharkiv) — i.e., a drive at nationwide control, not merely east/south.
Imperial War Museums analysis: Putin's plan was to seize Kyiv within days and install a pro-Moscow government (decapitation strike), confirming the campaign aimed at control of the whole country, including the capital.
Battle of Kyiv (2022): Russia launched a direct ground-and-air assault on the capital from the north, including the Hostomel airport airborne operation, evidencing an attempt to capture Kyiv itself.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+4.77- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- +4.77
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Russia will attempt a wholesale capture and occupation of a…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-02-24
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources