Prediction record
HiteconomyUS interest rates will rise multiple times during calendar year 2022.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Hiteconomy“the debate among the financial community is not will rates go up in calendar year 2022. Will they go up four times? Will they go up six times? Will they go eight times?”
US interest rates will rise multiple times during calendar year 2022.
- Made on
- 2022-02-24
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.82
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-12-14
During 2022, the Federal Reserve raises the federal funds rate on at least two separate occasions.
Criterion ('During 2022, the Federal Reserve raises the federal funds rate on at least two separate occasions') is overwhelmingly satisfied: the Fed raised rates on seven separate FOMC meetings in 2022, the most in a single year since 2005. Each hike confirmed by the Fed's own dated implementation notes (primary source). Resolved. No outcome value assigned (later stage).
Sources
Fed Reserve
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Fed primary sources document seven federal funds rate increases during calendar 2022, far exceeding the 'at least two separate occasions' criterion: Mar 16 (+25bp, to 0.25-0.50%); May 4 (+50bp, to 0.75-1.00%); Jun 15 (+75bp, to 1.50-1.75%); Jul 27 (+75bp, to 2.25-2.50%); Sep 21 (+75bp, to 3.00-3.25%); Nov 2 (+75bp, to 3.75-4.00%); Dec 14 (+50bp, to 4.25-4.50%).
March 16, 2022 FOMC Implementation Note: federal funds target range raised to 1/4 to 1/2 percent (first hike of 2022, +25bp).
May 4, 2022 FOMC Implementation Note: target range raised to 3/4 to 1 percent (+50bp). July 27, 2022 Implementation Note: target range raised to 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent (+75bp). These confirm at least two additional distinct hikes beyond March.
December 14, 2022 FOMC Implementation Note: target range set to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent, effective Dec 15, 2022 — the seventh and final 2022 hike, confirming the year ended far above the starting near-zero level.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+3.82- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.82
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
US interest rates will rise multiple times during calendar…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-02-24
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources