Prediction record
25% outcomemarketsGlobal wheat prices will at least triple due to the combined loss of Russian and Ukrainian production.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
25% outcomemarkets“wheat prices on a global basis are going to at least triple”
Global wheat prices will at least triple due to the combined loss of Russian and Ukrainian production.
- Made on
- 2022-02-24
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.12
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-02-24
At any point within the window, a benchmark global wheat price reaches ≥3x its pre-invasion (Feb 2022) level.
Criterion = 'At any point within the window (Feb 2022 - Feb 2025), a benchmark global wheat price reaches >=3x its pre-invasion (Feb 2022) level.' Resolves against the claim: the maximum multiple any benchmark reached was ~1.5x-1.8x (Chicago SRW peak ~$13.64/bu in early March 2022 vs ~$7.7-$8.9/bu pre-invasion); after mid-2022 prices fell back toward and below pre-invasion levels. No global wheat benchmark tripled at any point in the 3-year window. Window has fully elapsed (deadline 2025-02-24 < today 2026-06-20), so this is definitively checkable. No outcome value assigned here.
Sources
The Invasion of Ukraine, and Russian Product Exports
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Pre-invasion benchmark (Chicago SRW wheat futures) was ~$7.73/bushel at the start of February 2022 and ~$8.6-$8.86 in the week before the invasion (Feb 15-23, 2022). The post-invasion all-time intraday HIGH was reached in early March 2022: futures closed at $12.94/bu on March 7, 2022 and spiked to ~$13.64/bu intraday on March 8, 2022. Peak ÷ pre-invasion ≈ 13.64 / 7.73 ≈ 1.76x (and ≈ 1.5x vs the immediate pre-invasion ~$8.6 level) — i.e., wheat roughly 1.5x-1.8x, NOT 3x.
Analyses across the full window confirm wheat 'more than doubled' from pre-war levels only briefly and 'did not quite triple': global wheat prices rose ~60-67% above the Jan/Feb 2022 average at the May 2022 monthly peak, then fell sharply after the Black Sea Grain Initiative (July 2022) and through 2023-2024, never approaching 3x the Feb 2022 baseline at any point in the Feb 2022 - Feb 2025 window.
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago analysis quantifies the move: US wheat futures rose in excess of 50% between Feb 15, 2022 and March 7, 2022 — the largest such surge in six decades — but this is a ~1.5x move, far short of tripling. Prices subsequently normalized well below the 2022 peak.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+1.12- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.12
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Global wheat prices will at least triple due to the combine…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-02-24
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources