Prediction record
25% outcomemarketsGlobal oil prices will rise to at least $200 per barrel following the removal of Russia's ~5 million bbl/day of crude exports.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
25% outcomemarkets“If we go, if we stop at 200, I'd consider us lucky.”
Global oil prices will rise to at least $200 per barrel following the removal of Russia's ~5 million bbl/day of crude exports.
- Made on
- 2022-03-08
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.12
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-03-08
At any point within the window, a global crude benchmark (e.g. Brent) reaches at least $200/barrel. (i35, same 2022-03-08 video, makes the weaker same-direction "oil not done going up" claim — consolidated; i36 is the specific committed level.)
RESOLVED against the written criterion (a global crude benchmark reaching at least $200/barrel at any point in the 2022-03-08 → 2025-03-08 window). The benchmark Brent never came close: its single highest print was the ~$139/b intraday spike in early March 2022, and the post-2022 high was only ~$98/b (Sept 2023). The directional move was correct — oil DID spike sharply right after the invasion — but the specific committed level ($200) was off by a wide margin. The criterion explicitly notes i35 (the weaker 'oil not done going up' same-direction claim) was consolidated into this record; i36 is the specific $200 level scored here. No outcome value (o) assigned — that is the quantify stage. Evidence is from EIA primary/official price reporting; exact intraday peak ($139.13) is corroborated by market-data aggregators rather than a single canonical EIA daily figure, but the gap to $200 is far larger than any data-source discrepancy.
Sources
China, Oil, and the Ukraine War
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
EIA 'Today in Energy' (primary official): the combination of Russia's invasion of Ukraine with low global crude inventories lifted crude oil to its highest inflation-adjusted price since 2014 on 2022-03-08 (the same day this prediction was made); Brent averaged $100/b for full-year 2022 and ended the year at $85/b, with the year's low of $75/b on 2022-12-08. No 2022 monthly or annual figure approached $200/b.
Multiple market data sources concur Brent's intraday peak following the invasion was ~$139.13/barrel in early March 2022 (around 2022-03-08) — the highest print of the entire window — roughly $61/b short of the $200 threshold and never exceeded thereafter.
EIA 'Today in Energy': within the prediction window after 2022, Brent's high was only ~$98/b (reached 2023-09-28); Brent averaged ~$19/b less in 2023 than 2022 and traded in a narrow ~$68-93/b range through 2024, with the 2025 average ~$69/b. At no point in 2022-03-08 → 2025-03-08 did any global crude benchmark reach $200/b.
EIA 'Today in Energy' confirming 2024 Brent stayed in a $68-93/b range (high ~$91/b in April 2024), reinforcing that no approach to $200/b occurred in the latter part of the window.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+1.12- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.12
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Global oil prices will rise to at least $200 per barrel fol…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-03-08
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources