Prediction record
HitsocietyMore than 500,000 skilled Russians will flee Russia by the end of 2022.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Hitsociety“if by the end of the year it's under a half a million people i would be very surprised”
More than 500,000 skilled Russians will flee Russia by the end of 2022.
- Made on
- 2022-03-17
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.94
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-12-31
By 2022-12-31, more than half a million skilled/educated Russians have emigrated/fled the country.
RESOLVED; the half-million numeric threshold for 2022 is comfortably met (500k crossed by ~end of August 2022; full-year 2022 cumulative ~700k-900k across the spring/summer and post-mobilization waves). One measurement caveat for the quantify stage on the word 'skilled': total-emigration counts are not a pure 'skilled/educated' tally, but the documented 2022 wartime émigré population was heavily skewed toward educated, professional and IT/tech workers (the canonical 'brain drain' framing), and the raw headcount exceeds 500k by a wide margin even before any skill filter, so the threshold is met under any reasonable reading. Estimates aggregate independent sources (Forbes Russia, The Bell, OK Russians, destination-country arrival data) rather than a single official Russian statistic — exact totals vary by source, but all credible estimates place 2022 emigration above 500k. No outcome value (o) assigned.
Sources
Demographics, and The Ukraine War
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Wikipedia 'Russian emigration during the Russo-Ukrainian war (2022–present)', aggregating multiple primary estimates: 'at least 500,000 [had left] by the end of August 2022', i.e. the half-million threshold was crossed roughly four months before the 2022-12-31 deadline. A further large wave followed Putin's 2022-09-21 partial-mobilization announcement (nearly 300,000 fleeing before 2022-09-27, approaching 400,000 by 2022-10-04), pushing the cumulative 2022 total to roughly 700,000-900,000.
The Bell (independent Russian outlet) / bne IntelliNews: an estimated 666,000 Russians emigrated since early 2022, with ~650,000 assessed to remain abroad — independent corroboration that the 2022 emigration wave was well in excess of 500,000 (described as Russia's largest emigration wave since 1917).
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.94- Confidence
- 90%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.94
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
More than 500,000 skilled Russians will flee Russia by the…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-03-17
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources