Prediction record
MissenergyA multilateral ban on Russian oil will be enacted in April 2022.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Missenergy“it probably is inevitable and it'll almost certainly happen in April”
A multilateral ban on Russian oil will be enacted in April 2022.
- Made on
- 2022-03-22
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -2.48
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-04-30
By 2022-04-30, a coordinated multilateral ban/embargo on Russian oil imports is formally adopted by the relevant Western coalition.
RESOLVED against the claim. No coordinated multilateral ban/embargo on Russian OIL imports was formally adopted by the Western coalition by 2022-04-30. What happened in April 2022 (5th package, 8 April) was a COAL ban; the European Parliament merely passed a non-binding resolution on 7 April 2022 urging a full energy embargo. The actual EU oil embargo was adopted in the 6th package on 3 June 2022 (effective Dec 2022 / Feb 2023). The US had unilaterally banned Russian oil on 8 March 2022, but a unilateral US action is not the 'coordinated multilateral ban by the relevant Western coalition' the criterion requires. Distinct from the made_on date (2022-03-22) and deadline (2022-04-30); resolved_on set to the deadline since the criterion is a by-date test that the condition failed to meet. No outcome value assigned here.
Sources
Russian Oil's Vanishing Act
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
EU Council / White & Case: the EU's FIFTH sanctions package, adopted 8 April 2022, banned Russian COAL (and other solid fossil fuels), not oil — with a wind-down to 10 August 2022. No oil import ban was adopted in April 2022.
EU Council / CSIS: the coordinated multilateral ban on Russian OIL was part of the SIXTH sanctions package, agreed/adopted on 3 June 2022 (seaborne crude effective 5 December 2022; refined products 5 February 2023), with pipeline exemptions for Hungary/Slovakia/Czechia. This is the first formal multilateral Russian-oil embargo and it post-dates the 2022-04-30 deadline by over a month.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-2.48- Confidence
- 90%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -2.48
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
A multilateral ban on Russian oil will be enacted in April…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-03-22
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources