Prediction record
MisseconomyThe eurozone and Japan will probably never again have positive (central-bank policy) interest rates.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Misseconomy“These countries are probably never going to have positive interest rates again.”
The eurozone and Japan will probably never again have positive (central-bank policy) interest rates.
- Made on
- 2022-05-26
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.12
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-03-19
Over the window, neither the eurozone (ECB) nor Japan (BoJ) raises its policy rate into clearly positive territory; resolves false if either sets positive policy rates.
Decisively FALSIFIED within the window. The claim was that the eurozone and Japan would 'probably never again' have positive central-bank policy rates; the criterion resolves false if EITHER sets positive policy rates. Both did: the ECB deposit rate went positive (+0.75%) effective 14 Sep 2022 and rose to 4.00% by Sep 2023; the BoJ exited negative rates to 0-0.1% on 19 Mar 2024 and then raised to 0.25% (Jul 2024) and 0.50% (Jan 2025). resolved_on set to 2024-03-19, the date by which BOTH had positive rates (the ECB alone already triggered 'either' in Sep 2022). Sources are the primary central banks (ECB press release; BoJ decision via contemporaneous reporting) plus Trading Economics for the BoJ rate path. (Maps to file record id peter-zeihan-202205-europe-japan-no-positive-rates, previously marked not_scoreable as an open-ended 'never'; the supplied criterion gives a 2025-05-26 window over which the claim is clearly testable and falsified.)
Sources
The Bond Market and Inflation
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
ECB: starting July 2022 the ECB raised the deposit facility rate from -0.50%; effective 14 September 2022 the deposit rate was lifted to +0.75% (above zero, ending the negative-rate era and the two-tier remuneration system), and by September 2023 the deposit rate reached 4.00%. The eurozone (ECB) set clearly POSITIVE policy rates well within the window.
Bank of Japan: on 19 March 2024 the BoJ ended its negative interest rate policy (the world's last), raising the short-term policy rate from -0.1% to a 0%-0.1% range — its first hike in 17 years.
BoJ continued raising into clearly positive territory: to 0.25% in July 2024, then to 0.50% on 24 January 2025 (highest in 17 years), and higher still by December 2025. Removes any ambiguity that Japan's policy rate was set into clearly positive territory within the window.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-1.12- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.12
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The eurozone and Japan will probably never again have posit…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-05-26
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources