Prediction record
MissgeopoliticsThe Sweden/Finland NATO negotiations in the following week (late May 2022) will succeed in resolving the parties' core interests.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Missgeopolitics“negotiations next week probably will get us exactly what we need there's an interest on both sides for this being resolved quickly”
The Sweden/Finland NATO negotiations in the following week (late May 2022) will succeed in resolving the parties' core interests.
- Made on
- 2022-05-22
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-05-29
By the end of the week following 2022-05-22, the negotiation round produces the needed agreement/breakthrough advancing Sweden/Finland NATO accession on the parties' core interests.
Criterion: by end of the week following 2022-05-22, the negotiation round produces the needed agreement/breakthrough on the parties' core interests. Resolved AGAINST: the in-window round (May 25 Ankara) explicitly ended without agreement, with Turkey reiterating unmet demands; the genuine breakthrough (trilateral memorandum) came ~June 28, 2022 — well after the predicted week. Outcome value (o) deliberately not assigned (later stage).
Sources
Sweden, Finland, NATO, and Turkey
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
The first trilateral delegation meeting (Finland, Sweden, Turkey) was held May 25, 2022 in Ankara — within the week following May 22. It ended WITHOUT a breakthrough: Turkish spokesman İbrahim Kalın said afterward that unless Turkey's security concerns 'are not met with concrete steps in a certain timeframe the process will not progress,' and Turkey tabled five 'concrete assurance' demands (end political support for terrorism, cut terrorism financing, cease arms support to PKK/YPG, etc.).
The actual breakthrough did not come until the trilateral memorandum signed on/around June 28, 2022 at the eve of the NATO Madrid summit (after ~4 hours of talks) — over a month after the predicted week. A second negotiating round in Brussels on June 20, 2022 also preceded it. This places the resolving agreement well outside the May 22–29 window.
Background: Turkey blocked the START of accession talks on May 18, 2022 (Washington Post), establishing that as of the prediction date the round was contested and did not quickly resolve in the following week.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-0.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The Sweden/Finland NATO negotiations in the following week…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-05-22
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources