Prediction record
HittechBuilding out, from scratch, multiple supply lines incorporating advanced semiconductors for the relevant weapon systems will not be accomplished in under a year (not before ~May 2023).
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Hittech“that's not going to happen in less than a year”
Building out, from scratch, multiple supply lines incorporating advanced semiconductors for the relevant weapon systems will not be accomplished in under a year (not before ~May 2023).
- Made on
- 2022-05-19
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.86
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-05-19
By ~2023-05-19, the US has not stood up the multiple new from-scratch semiconductor-incorporating supply lines for these weapon systems (i.e., it took longer than a year).
Criterion (by ~2023-05-19 the U.S. had NOT stood up multiple new from-scratch semiconductor-incorporating supply lines for these weapon systems, i.e., it took longer than a year) is met. Industry and Pentagon sources through 2022-2023 consistently report ongoing chip shortages, multi-year production-expansion timelines, required electronics redesigns, and a just-enacted (Aug 2022) CHIPS Act whose fab buildout extends well past 2023. No evidence of new from-scratch supply lines being operational within the one-year window. Resolved_on set to the deadline 2023-05-19. No conflicting evidence; note this is a 'negative'/non-event prediction verified by the documented absence of the buildout.
Sources
The Ukraine War and Materiel
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Defense News (Sep 2022) and Pentagon testimony: production of Raytheon's Javelin and Stinger missiles (key Ukraine-aid weapons; a Javelin uses ~200-250 chips) was 'hamstrung by persistent semiconductor manufacturing delays.' Raytheon CEO said the company 'may not be able to make more Stingers until at least 2023' and would have to REDESIGN the seeker electronics because some components were no longer commercially available — indicating supply lines were NOT stood up within a year.
Raytheon CEO Greg Hayes said microchips 'could continue to be scarce beyond mid-2023,' and Lockheed CEO said doubling Javelin output 'would take a number of months, maybe even a couple of years' — confirming that building out new semiconductor-incorporating supply lines for these weapon systems took longer than one year (i.e., not accomplished before ~May 2023).
The CHIPS Act was only signed into law 9 Aug 2022, and its semiconductor-fab buildout is a multi-year effort; no new from-scratch chip supply lines for these weapon systems were operational by ~May 2023. Pentagon warned Congress (Jul 2022) that surface-to-air missiles 'need chips too' amid ongoing shortages.
Corrections
- horizon type: Zeihan explicitly stated the temporal bound ('that's not going to happen in less than a year'). Per the deadline rule, the inference table applies only when no explicit deadline is given; an explicitly stated duration takes horizon.type 'explicit'. The basis already quotes 'less than a year' and the deadline value (2023-05-19) is unchanged. This resolves the lone 'uncertain' horizon_check without altering the deadline.
Score contribution
+2.86- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.86
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Building out, from scratch, multiple supply lines incorpora…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-05-19
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources