Prediction record
25% outcomeenergyMost of Europe will follow Germany in removing natural gas from its energy mix and bringing coal back.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
25% outcomeenergy“some version of this is now going to happen across most of europe”
Most of Europe will follow Germany in removing natural gas from its energy mix and bringing coal back.
- Made on
- 2022-06-23
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.12
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-06-23
Within ~12 months, a majority of European countries materially reduce natural gas in their power/energy mix and increase coal usage, following Germany's lead.
FALSE on the written criterion. The criterion needs a MAJORITY of European countries to materially reduce gas in the energy mix AND INCREASE coal usage, following Germany. Gas demand did fall sharply (consistent with the 'remove gas' framing) - but the second, decisive half (a majority increasing coal) did not happen in any sustained, broad way: EU coal consumption rose only +2% in 2022 (lignite-driven, concentrated in Poland/Germany) and was already falling ~23% in 2023. Europe replaced gas mainly with demand reduction, LNG, and renewables, not coal. resolved_on set to the deadline date; primary Eurostat data for 2022 plus early-2023 trend establish the answer as of the cutoff.
Sources
The Ukraine War, a New Flashpoint, and the End of Europe's Energy Innocence
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Eurostat (primary, official EU statistical agency): EU natural gas demand FELL, it did not rise. Inland gas demand dropped 13.2% in 2022 (to 13.72 million TJ) after a 4.3% rise in 2021; between Aug 2022-Mar 2023 EU gas consumption was down 17.7% vs the 2017-2022 average for those months. The REPowerEU Council Regulation (EU) 2022/1369 set a 15% gas demand-reduction target for Aug 2022-Mar 2023 - the opposite of 'removing gas means bringing coal back.' Europe cut gas chiefly via demand reduction, LNG, and renewables, not a coal pivot.
Eurostat (primary): EU coal CONSUMPTION rose only modestly in 2022, +2% to 454 million tonnes (production +5% to 349 Mt), and the rebound was driven by lignite, having actually begun in 2021. This is far from 'most of Europe brings coal back' replacing gas. Poland (38%) and Germany (25%) dominated hard-coal use; the bump was concentrated, not broad-based across a majority of European countries.
Eurostat (primary): EU coal use then FELL SHARPLY in 2023 - production down 21% and consumption down 23% (2022->2023) - so by/around the 23 Jun 2023 deadline coal was already reversing to record lows, not being 'brought back.' Confirms no sustained majority-of-Europe shift from gas to coal.
Ember European Electricity Review (independent power-sector analysis): coal power rose only +1.5 percentage points to 16% of EU electricity in 2022, then fell 26% in 2023 to ~12% (lowest ever); gas generation fell 15% in 2023; fossil share fell to ~33%. Both gas AND coal declined - Europe did not follow Germany into a coal comeback.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+1.12- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.12
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Most of Europe will follow Germany in removing natural gas…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-06-23
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources