Prediction record
MissenergyEurope will undertake a massive new coal build (starting in Germany and spreading), completely obliterating Europe's climate goals.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Missenergy“absolutely massive coal build across europe starting in germany but continuing on which will completely obliterate europe's climate goals”
Europe will undertake a massive new coal build (starting in Germany and spreading), completely obliterating Europe's climate goals.
- Made on
- 2022-06-23
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.78
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-06-23
Within ~12 months, Europe (beginning with Germany) substantially expands coal capacity/use such that stated European climate targets are clearly breached/abandoned.
FALSE on the written criterion, which requires Europe (beginning with Germany) to SUBSTANTIALLY expand coal capacity/use such that stated climate targets are clearly breached/abandoned. The reverse occurred: only a small +2% EU coal blip in 2022, then a ~23-26% collapse in 2023; Germany hit a 70-year-low in CO2 emissions with record renewables and remained broadly on track for its 2030 climate target. No country abandoned headline climate targets via a coal build-out within the window. resolved_on set to the deadline date; 2022 outturn plus the unambiguous 2023 reversal establish the answer as of the cutoff.
Sources
The Ukraine War, a New Flashpoint, and the End of Europe's Energy Innocence
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Eurostat (primary): No 'massive new coal build.' EU coal consumption rose only +2% in 2022 (production +5%), a modest lignite-driven rebound that had begun in 2021, and then FELL 23% in 2023 to record lows. A 2% blip reversing to a 23% drop is the opposite of a massive capacity expansion.
Germany (the claimed starting point) moved AWAY from coal, not toward a build-out: 2023 CO2 emissions fell to a ~70-year low (~673 Mt, -46% vs 1990), coal power for public supply fell to its lowest since ~1960, renewables supplied a record >50% of power consumption, and 14.4 GW of new solar was added. Germany was assessed broadly on track for its 2030 target of -65% vs 1990 - climate goals advancing, not 'obliterated.'
Agora Energiewende (primary energy think-tank): Germany's CO2 emissions dropped to a record low in 2023, driven significantly by a sharp decline in coal use - directly contradicting a 'massive coal build, starting in Germany' that 'completely obliterates' climate goals.
Ember European Electricity Review 2023: EU coal generation fell 26% in 2023 to its lowest ever (~12% of the mix) and EU fossil share fell to ~33% (lowest ever); wind alone outgenerated gas. No Europe-wide coal expansion; climate-relevant emissions trended down.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-1.78- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.78
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Europe will undertake a massive new coal build (starting in…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-06-23
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources