Prediction record
25% outcomeenergyAll Russian natural-gas pipelines crossing Ukraine and Belarus to Europe/Germany will be shut down within months (by end of 2022 / early 2023).
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
25% outcomeenergy“at some point over the course of this next year probably within the next few months they're all going to be shut down because of war damage”
All Russian natural-gas pipelines crossing Ukraine and Belarus to Europe/Germany will be shut down within months (by end of 2022 / early 2023).
- Made on
- 2022-07-11
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.12
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-12-31
By end of 2022, all Russian gas pipelines transiting Ukraine and Belarus to the European/German system have ceased flowing (shut down).
Came false on its written criterion. The claim was that ALL Russian gas pipelines crossing Ukraine AND Belarus would be shut down by end 2022 / early 2023. The Belarus (Yamal) route was indeed shut by then, but the Ukraine transit route kept flowing via the Sudzha point through all of 2022 (20.5 bcm) and 2023 (14.7 bcm), not ceasing until 31 Dec 2024. Because the prediction is a universal ('all ... shut down'), the surviving Ukraine flow falsifies it. resolved_on = deadline (2022-12-31), the date by which the 'all shut' condition demonstrably failed (Ukraine was still flowing). No conflicting evidence — transit volumes are reported consistently across OSW, Statista, and the Ukrainian TSO.
Sources
Beijing Doubles Down on Zero COVID...and Lockdowns
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Belarus route (Yamal-Europe): shut down in the wake of the 2022 war — Russia cut Yamal supply to Poland in May 2022 after buyers refused ruble payment, and the pipeline has sat unused since 2022. So the Belarus-transit prong was satisfied by end 2022.
Ukraine route: NOT fully shut by end 2022. After Ukraine's TSO declared force majeure and halted the Sokhranivka entry point on 11 May 2022, the Sudzha entry point remained operational and Russian gas CONTINUED to flow through Ukraine to Europe throughout 2022 and 2023. Transit totalled 20.5 bcm in 2022 and 14.7 bcm in 2023 (OSW / Statista).
The Ukraine transit route was only fully shut down on 31 December 2024, when the five-year transit contract expired and was not renewed and Russia requested no flows for 1 January 2025 — roughly two years AFTER the claim's end-2022/early-2023 window.
Corrections
- Date: made_on was copied from the wrong (China/COVID) video. The verbatim was uttered on 2022-07-11 in Cm_fPN-yeJc ('it is july 11'). Inferred deadline 2022-12-31 remains defensible from this anchor and the false resolution is unaffected.
- Prediction timeframe: Re-anchor the horizon basis to the corrected utterance date and quote the actual triggering phrase from the true source (Cm_fPN-yeJc).
Score contribution
+1.12- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.12
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
All Russian natural-gas pipelines crossing Ukraine and Bela…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-07-11
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources