The winter of 2022-2023 will be harsh in Europe.

Outcome evidence

• Europe spent over EUR 1 trillion more on oil, gas and coal in 2022 than the prior year (more than doubling energy's share of GDP); benchmark gas prices, though off their Aug-2022 peak (EUR 339/MWh), remained ~265% higher YoY through the winter, forcing huge government subsidies and squeezing households and industry. The UK's National Energy Action projected households in energy poverty rising from 4.5M to 8.5M; several gas-intensive industrial plants curtailed output and multiple European economies were expected to slip into recession over the winter. This satisfies the criterion's 'major price-driven distress / severe economic hardship' branch.

  Evidence

• COUNTERVAILING (shortages/rationing branch NOT triggered): A US Federal Reserve FEDS Note concluded 'Europe weathered the past winter reasonably well, and the energy-related economic costs appear to have been more muted than initially feared.' An unusually mild winter (accounting for ~half the demand drop) plus rapid LNG import substitution (net non-Russian imports +44 bcm in 2022 H2, offsetting a 39 bcm Russian decline) meant Europe avoided the gas shortages, mandatory rationing and blackouts widely feared; storage ended the winter ~40% above the seasonal average. So the 'shortages/rationing' sub-condition did not occur even though the 'price-driven distress' sub-condition did.

  Evidence

Corrections

No public corrections.