Prediction record
25% outcomeenergyThe remaining Russian gas pipelines crossing Ukraine and Belarus into Europe/Germany will be shut down by the end of 2022 due to war or partisan damage.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
25% outcomeenergy“i would anticipate the other natural gas pipelines that cross belarus and ukraine on their way to germany are also going to go offline this year either due to war or partisan damage”
The remaining Russian gas pipelines crossing Ukraine and Belarus into Europe/Germany will be shut down by the end of 2022 due to war or partisan damage.
- Made on
- 2022-08-02
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.58
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-12-31
All Russian gas pipelines transiting Ukraine and Belarus to Europe cease flowing by 2022-12-31 due to war/partisan damage.
Mixed against the conjunctive criterion. The Belarus (Yamal-Europe) route did cease in 2022, but the Ukraine-transit route (Sudzha) kept flowing through end-2022 and for two more years, stopping only Jan 1, 2025 due to contract expiry (a commercial/political decision), not war or partisan damage. Because the criterion requires ALL Russian gas pipelines transiting BOTH Ukraine and Belarus to cease by 2022-12-31 due to war/partisan damage, the Ukraine-transit leg was clearly still flowing at the deadline, so the criterion was not met. Status resolved; outcome value (o) not assigned (left to quantify).
Sources
Electricity in Transition
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
The Yamal-Europe pipeline (transiting Belarus) and the Nord Stream pipelines (Baltic, not via Ukraine/Belarus) ceased delivering Russian gas to Europe in 2022 (Nord Stream lines were physically damaged in the Sept 26, 2022 sabotage). However, the Russian gas transit pipeline crossing UKRAINE continued flowing throughout 2022 via the Sudzha entry point, which since May 11, 2022 was the sole operating Ukraine border point. Ukraine transit totaled 20.5 bcm in 2022 — i.e., Russian gas was still transiting Ukraine to Europe at end-2022.
Russian gas transit via Ukraine (Sudzha) continued without significant disruption through 2023 (~14.65 bcm) and 2024 (~15.4 bcm), and only stopped at 08:00 on January 1, 2025, when the Gazprom-Naftogaz transit contract expired (Ukraine declined to renew) — NOT by Dec 31, 2022, and NOT due to war/partisan damage to the pipeline. This directly refutes the criterion that 'all Russian gas pipelines transiting Ukraine... cease flowing by 2022-12-31 due to war/partisan damage.'
Corrections
- Prediction timeframe: Confirmed against transcript BD0sq5GN7xc: 'within the next few months' does not appear; only 'this year' is uttered. Deadline 2022-12-31 stays correct via the 'this year' rule, but the basis must cite only the phrase actually said.
Score contribution
+1.58- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.58
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The remaining Russian gas pipelines crossing Ukraine and Be…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-08-02
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources