Prediction record
Missgeopolitics2022 will be the last year Ukraine participates in international grain markets.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Missgeopolitics“likely end result here is that this is the last year that ukraine participates in international grain markets they simply don't have the capacity to get stuff up at a scale”
2022 will be the last year Ukraine participates in international grain markets.
- Made on
- 2022-08-05
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.12
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-12-31
Ukraine exits international grain export markets after 2022 (negligible grain exports in 2023+) — falsified if Ukraine continues meaningful grain exports in 2023.
FALSIFIED. The written criterion states the prediction is falsified if Ukraine continues meaningful grain exports in 2023. Ukraine exported tens of millions of tonnes of grain in 2023 and every year since (via the Black Sea Grain Initiative through July 2023, then a unilateral Black Sea corridor from Aug 2023, plus EU Solidarity Lanes), and remains a top-6 global wheat exporter and top-4 corn exporter. 2022 was clearly NOT the last year Ukraine participated in international grain markets. (Outcome value/scoring deliberately left to a later stage.)
Sources
Putting Ukraine's Grain Export Deal Into Context
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
USDA Economic Research Service: Ukraine's wheat and corn exports recovered under the Black Sea Grain Initiative in the 2022/23 and 2023/24 marketing years; Ukraine continued large-scale grain exports well into 2023, not a negligible amount.
EU Council infographic 'Ukrainian grain exports explained' documents continued, substantial Ukrainian grain exports through 2023 and beyond via Black Sea corridor and Solidarity Lanes (~201 million tonnes of grain/oilseeds exported May 2022 onward; Black Sea corridor alone delivered >162 million tonnes including >98M tonnes of grain and vegetable oil since Aug 2023).
World Grain / FAS data: for the 2023/24 marketing season Ukraine exported on the order of ~50 million tonnes of grain (forecasts ~29.2M tonnes corn, ~17.7M tonnes wheat); Ukraine remained the 4th-largest corn exporter and 6th-largest wheat exporter globally in 2025 — far from exiting international grain markets.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-1.12- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.12
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
2022 will be the last year Ukraine participates in internat…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-08-05
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources