Prediction record
MissenergyEuropean natural gas prices spike sharply (go 'through the roof') during winter 2022-2023 as demand peaks.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Missenergy“if you go into winter when demand skyrockets because you're cold in the winter uh you know that prices are going to go through the roof even if supplies are not in danger”
European natural gas prices spike sharply (go 'through the roof') during winter 2022-2023 as demand peaks.
- Made on
- 2022-09-08
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.78
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-03-31
European benchmark gas price (e.g. TTF) reaches a sharp new spike / multi-fold increase versus pre-winter levels at some point during the 2022-2023 winter.
Criterion = European benchmark (TTF) reaches a sharp NEW spike / multi-fold increase vs PRE-WINTER levels at some point during winter 2022-2023. On the evidence this did not happen: the record TTF peak (~EUR 300-345/MWh) was in late August 2022, BEFORE the 2022-09-08 prediction, and over the winter window prices fell steadily (from ~EUR 100 in Oct, below EUR 30 in Nov, EUR 85-140 in Dec, EUR 65-68 in Jan) as a mild winter and full storage cut demand. The December cold-snap firmness (~EUR 140) is a minor uptick within a falling trend, not a sharp/multi-fold new spike versus the autumn pre-winter baseline. Prediction appears falsified; outcome value to be assigned by a later stage. Precise daily TTF settlement prints are behind paywalled exchange/data feeds (ICE/CME/Investing.com) but the monthly trajectory is well-corroborated by multiple secondary sources citing exchange data.
Sources
Europe's Natural Gas Challenge
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Dutch TTF (the European benchmark) hit its all-time intraday/settlement high of roughly EUR 300-345/MWh in late August 2022 — BEFORE this prediction was made on 2022-09-08. The EU Council/infographic record confirms TTF month-ahead and day-ahead prices exceeded EUR 300/MWh in August 2022 (highest over 22-26 Aug 2022, above EUR 265/MWh), up ~1000% vs the prior decade's EUR 5-35/MWh range. This peak is the pre-prediction baseline, not a winter spike.
Over the predicted winter window (Dec 2022-Mar 2023) TTF prices FELL sharply rather than spiking. After peaking ~EUR 339/MWh in Aug 2022, front-month TTF plunged to just under EUR 100/MWh by end-October 2022, fell below EUR 30/MWh at points in November 2022 (mild autumn, EU storage ~93% full, demand destruction), traded roughly EUR 85-140/MWh in December 2022 (a modest cold-snap firmness, far below any 'through the roof' level), and dropped to ~EUR 65-68/MWh in January 2023. The 2022-23 winter was unusually mild and no sharp new multi-fold spike vs pre-winter levels occurred.
Reporting on the winter trajectory (Intereconomics, EU price cap analysis) confirms prices were already moderating before the cap took effect and that the relatively mild winter of 2022-23 prevented the steep spikes seen in summer 2022; prices trended downward through the winter.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-1.78- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.78
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
European natural gas prices spike sharply (go 'through the…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-09-08
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources