Prediction record
MissgeopoliticsRussia's military-industrial complex will collapse within the next few years (by ~2025), losing the capacity to sustain military production.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Missgeopolitics“it means that the russian military-industrial complex is already in a state of collapse if the one thing that we know they're good at they can't even maintain flow rates then this is the end of the russian military capacity over the next few years”
Russia's military-industrial complex will collapse within the next few years (by ~2025), losing the capacity to sustain military production.
- Made on
- 2022-09-07
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- -2.22
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-09-07
By ~2025, Russia's military-industrial complex loses the capacity to sustain military production (collapse of domestic arms output).
Claim clearly contradicted as of the ~2025 deadline. The prediction was that Russia's military-industrial complex would COLLAPSE and lose the capacity to sustain production by ~2025; instead domestic arms output rose sharply across tanks, missiles, shells and drones, and Russia out-produced NATO on ammunition. There are real 2025 strain signals (slowing growth rates, depleting Soviet stockpiles, sanctions costs, debate over a 2025 peak), which I note for completeness, but they fall far short of a collapse or loss of capacity to sustain production. resolved_on = 2025-09-07 (the ~2025 deadline).
Sources
Russia's Military Starts Shopping Abroad
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Far from collapsing, Russia massively scaled arms output through 2025: tank production at Uralvagonzavod reportedly reached ~1,500 in 2025 (a ~10x jump from 2021 lows), Russia planned ~2,500 high-precision missiles for 2025, factories produced ~7 million artillery/mortar/tank/rocket rounds in 2025 (~19,000/day), and >34,000 strike drones/decoys by mid-September 2025. Putin claimed tank output up 2.2x and munitions up 22x since Feb 2022. Defense spending rose to ~$140B (2024) and ~$143B (2025).
Russia was assessed to be out-producing all NATO nations combined on ammunition (est. ~7x the West), having shifted from drawing down Soviet stockpiles toward mass production of modern arms — the opposite of losing the capacity to sustain military production.
COUNTERVAILING / partial strain signals (do NOT amount to collapse): some 2025 analyses flag deceleration and stress — growth in fabricated-metal (artillery/ammo) output slowed to +15.9% in Jan–Oct 2025 from +31.6% in 2024, electronics-for-military growth slowed similarly, Soviet-era refurbishable stockpiles are dwindling, sanctions raised costs/complicated supply chains, and some argue the defense boom may have peaked in 2025.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-2.22- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- -2.22
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Russia's military-industrial complex will collapse within t…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-09-07
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources