Prediction record
25% outcomegeopoliticsThe entire US-China corporate relationship collapses over the next one to three years.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
25% outcomegeopolitics“You should count on the entire corporate relationship collapsing over the course of the next year or three. We're at that point now.”
The entire US-China corporate relationship collapses over the next one to three years.
- Made on
- 2022-09-17
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.4
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-09-17
Corporate ties between the US and Chinese economies break down broadly (mass decoupling/withdrawal of major corporate relationships) by the deadline.
Criterion requires the ENTIRE US-China corporate relationship to collapse — broad mass decoupling/withdrawal of major corporate relationships — by Sept 17, 2025. Evidence shows substantial friction and a sharp 2025 trade contraction driven by tariffs (partial decoupling, supply-chain diversification, 'de-risking'), but NOT a broad collapse: ~$606B (2024) and ~$414B (2025) of two-way goods trade and continued large-scale operations by Apple, Tesla, Boeing, GM, Nvidia, Intel. The strong-form claim ('entire corporate relationship collapses') did not occur. This is a directional/magnitude judgment with both-sides context (real, accelerating decoupling vs. continued deep ties) to be weighed at the quantify stage; status resolved because the written threshold (mass/entire collapse) is clearly unmet by the deadline.
Sources
China: Balancing a Floundering Russia and Angry Americans
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
US Census / Statista / USTR trade data: Total US-China bilateral GOODS trade was roughly $605.9 billion in 2024 (imports ~$462.4B, exports ~$143.5B). Combined goods-and-services trade was ~$658.9B in 2024 (up 2.6% from 2023). A multi-hundred-billion-dollar two-way trade relationship persisted — inconsistent with a broad collapse of the entire corporate relationship.
2025 saw a sharp contraction amid a tariff escalation (US ~125% / China ~84% tariffs implemented April 2025): US-China goods trade fell to ~$414.7B in 2025 (imports ~$308.4B down ~29.7%, exports ~$106.3B down ~25.8%). This is a major partial decoupling and contraction, NOT a wholesale breakdown of corporate ties.
Industry reporting (2026): Major US corporations remained deeply embedded in China through the period — Apple still manufactures the overwhelming majority of iPhones in China; Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory produced >4M vehicles and China was >1/3 of Tesla deliveries in 2024; Nvidia, GM, Boeing, Intel retained significant China ties. Confirms the 'entire' corporate relationship did not collapse by the deadline.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+1.4- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.4
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The entire US-China corporate relationship collapses over t…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-09-17
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources