Prediction record
MisstechChina's technological rise is over and its technological capability will now decline
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Misstech“from a technological point of view China is done”
China's technological rise is over and its technological capability will now decline
- Made on
- 2022-10-17
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- -2.22
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-10-17
After Oct 2022, China's aggregate technological capability (esp. in advanced semiconductors/compute) ceases rising and observably declines rather than continuing to advance
Criterion required China's aggregate technological capability (esp. advanced semiconductors/compute) to CEASE rising and observably DECLINE after Oct 2022. Evidence points the opposite way: SMIC advanced 14nm→7nm→5nm-pilot, Huawei shipped competitive domestic SoCs (Kirin 9000s 2023, 9030 later), and IC exports/output hit records. Caveat noted for transparency: China's advanced nodes still lag the global frontier (no EUV; 7nm yields ~20-40%, 5nm yields ~1/3 of TSMC; higher costs) and remain below TSMC/Samsung — but the written criterion is about ceasing-to-rise and declining, which did not occur. Outcome value (o) deliberately NOT assigned; scoring is a later stage.
Sources
The Bad News Continues for China's Semiconductor Industry
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
TechInsights teardown confirmed Huawei's Mate 60 Pro (released Sept 2023) uses the HiSilicon Kirin 9000s built on SMIC's second-generation 7nm (N+2) process — the first domestically designed-and-manufactured advanced SoC in China and the first commercial 7nm logic node produced without EUV. This is a clear ADVANCE in China's most advanced foundry capability AFTER Oct 2022, directly contradicting the claim that Chinese technological capability would cease rising and decline.
Reporting through 2025 shows SMIC progressing from 7nm (mass production validated 2023) to a 5nm node with pilot runs in 2025 and mass-production aims for 2026 (Huawei/Alibaba AI processors), and Huawei's Kirin 9030 (Mate 80 Pro Max) described as China's most advanced domestic semiconductor manufacturing to date. Capability continued to RISE, not decline, across the prediction window.
China's integrated-circuit exports reached USD 159.5 billion in 2024 (+17.4% YoY) and 298.1 billion units (+11.6%); domestic mature-node capacity share projected to grow from 34% (2024) to 47% (2027), surpassing Taiwan. Aggregate Chinese semiconductor output expanded over the window rather than declining.
Corrections
- Prediction timeframe: The stated basis leans on the +36mo price-target default, which does not apply to a non-price structural claim with no temporal phrase. Rewording keeps the same deadline (2025-10-17) but honestly states the horizon is Avow-imposed, per the deterministic-horizon transparency rule. Fixable sloppy-basis wording -> corrected.
Score contribution
-2.22- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- -2.22
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
China's technological rise is over and its technological ca…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-10-17
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources