Prediction record
HitgeopoliticsGermany will very soon become one of the largest donors of military aid to Ukraine.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Hitgeopolitics“Germany may very soon be not just the country that is sacrificing the most but one of the countries that has also donated the most”
Germany will very soon become one of the largest donors of military aid to Ukraine.
- Made on
- 2022-10-17
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.79
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-10-17
By 2023-10-17, Germany ranks among the top contributors of military aid to Ukraine.
Criterion ('By 2023-10-17, Germany ranks among the top contributors of military aid to Ukraine') is met with high confidence per the Kiel Institute Ukraine Support Tracker: Germany was already the second-largest military-aid contributor in absolute terms by spring/summer 2023 and continued large pledges (Patriot, IRIS-T) through October 2023. Outcome value (o) deliberately not assigned — left to scoring stage. The Bloomberg/Kiel four-year report and other trackers corroborate; no credible source ranks Germany outside the top contributors of MILITARY aid in this period.
Sources
The Costs of Germany's Support for Ukraine
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Kiel Institute Ukraine Support Tracker (the standard primary database of aid to Ukraine, covering 31+ Western governments): as of the period Feb 25-May 31, 2023, 'Germany, now the second biggest contributor of military aid in absolute terms, increased its military pledges by EUR 3.26 billion, or 76 percent, to EUR 7.5 billion total,' including battle tanks and IRIS-T air defense. Published July 6, 2023 — i.e. Germany already ranked #2 in military aid well before the 2023-10-17 deadline.
Kiel Institute Ukraine Support Tracker landing page confirms Germany ranks among top bilateral military-aid donors to Ukraine (commonly cited as #2 in absolute military aid behind the US, with EU institutions and the UK also among top overall donors). The tracker is the authoritative source for these rankings.
Kiel Institute update covering pledges through ~Oct 31, 2023 notes new German pledges (additional Patriot and IRIS-T air-defense systems) driving European support in the Aug-Oct 2023 window, confirming Germany remained a leading military-aid contributor at the deadline.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+1.79- Confidence
- 55%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.79
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Germany will very soon become one of the largest donors of…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-10-17
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources