Prediction record
MissgeopoliticsBy spring 2023, Ukraine's shutoff of the Crimean Canal will cause a large-scale famine that destroys Russia's ability to hold a functional military position in Crimea, forcing evacuation or military collapse
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Missgeopolitics“if the Russians can't bring in food and fuel and troops through those three Bridges well huh crime is gonna have to make its own and it can't sure the population is about 3 million but that's not enough to support a large-scale military operation Crimea has no oil Crimea has no refineries they can't bring anything in by ship because the shipping lanes have been interdicted by Ukrainian Maritime drones and long-range missiles”
By spring 2023, Ukraine's shutoff of the Crimean Canal will cause a large-scale famine that destroys Russia's ability to hold a functional military position in Crimea, forcing evacuation or military collapse
- Made on
- 2022-11-14
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- -4.41
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-06-21
By spring 2023, Crimea suffers a large-scale famine (mass food shortage) from the canal shutoff, and Russia is forced to either evacuate Crimea or loses functional military capacity on the peninsula
PREDICTION FALSE (on every limb). The criterion required (a) a large-scale Crimea famine from the canal shutoff by spring 2023, AND (b) Russia forced to evacuate Crimea or losing functional military capacity there. Neither occurred. Critically, the canal shutoff had ALREADY been reversed by Russia in Feb-Mar 2022 (eight months before the Nov 14, 2022 claim) — Russia destroyed the blocking dam and restored water flow on the first days of the invasion. There was no mass food shortage/famine in Crimea in 2022 or spring 2023, and Russia maintained full functional military control of Crimea throughout (no evacuation, no collapse). Note: the only major canal disruption in this window was the OPPOSITE causal direction — the 6 June 2023 Kakhovka Dam destruction dried the canal — but that is unrelated to a Ukrainian shutoff causing famine and post-dates the spring window; it did not produce famine or Russian military collapse in Crimea either. Resolution date set to the criterion deadline (2023-06-21, end of spring). High confidence; the prediction's factual premise was already counterfactual at the time it was made.
Sources
The Beginning of the Fall of Crimea
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
On 24 February 2022 (first day of the invasion) Russian troops seized the North Crimean Canal, and within two days (by ~26 Feb / early March 2022) Russian forces destroyed the Ukrainian-built dam that had blocked the canal since 2014, RESTORING water flow to Crimea. Thus the premise of the prediction — an ongoing Ukrainian canal shutoff causing famine — had already been reversed before the claim was made (2022-11-14). No large-scale Crimea famine occurred in 2022 or spring 2023.
NPR (June 2022) reported that returning Ukraine's water to Crimea via the canal was effectively one of Russia's achieved early war goals, confirming water supply was restored — not cut off — during 2022. No mass-food-shortage/famine in Crimea is documented for spring 2023.
The Moscow Times reported the North Crimean Canal filled with water in early March 2022 after Russian forces destroyed the blocking dam, corroborating that the canal was flowing (water restored) well before and throughout the prediction window. Russia retained full functional military control of Crimea throughout spring 2023; there was no evacuation and no military collapse on the peninsula.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-4.41- Confidence
- 97%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- -4.41
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
By spring 2023, Ukraine's shutoff of the Crimean Canal will…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-11-14
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources