Prediction record
MisseconomyEuropean auto manufacturing will collapse (be effectively gone) within less than a year (by late 2023).
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Misseconomy“It'll be gone in less than a year because remember next year they're going to have even less to work with.”
European auto manufacturing will collapse (be effectively gone) within less than a year (by late 2023).
- Made on
- 2022-11-22
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.78
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-11-22
By late 2023, European auto manufacturing output has effectively collapsed (e.g., production down by the large majority / industry non-viable).
Criterion: by late 2023 European auto manufacturing output has effectively collapsed (production down by a large majority / industry non-viable). Actual 2023 EU car production rose 11.6% YoY to 12.2M units — a recovery year, not a collapse. Prediction clearly did not come true. resolved_on = deadline (2023-11-22); full-year 2023 ACEA data confirms output through year-end.
Sources
Ukrainian Consequences: Energy in Europe
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
European auto manufacturing did NOT collapse — it grew strongly. Per ACEA (the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association, the industry's official statistics body), the EU produced 12.2 million passenger cars in 2023, an increase of 11.6% versus 2022 (and ~14.8 million total motor vehicles). This is a robust recovery, not an industry that is 'effectively gone.'
Output remained concentrated in major producing nations operating normally: Germany produced ~4.11 million passenger cars in 2023 and Spain ~1.91 million, per industry/Statista data — consistent with a functioning, viable European auto industry throughout 2023, the opposite of collapse.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-1.78- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.78
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
European auto manufacturing will collapse (be effectively g…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-11-22
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources